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KCLE / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
9%
ICON
7%
HRES
7%
AIFS
6%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 4.8¢Risks 1.20u
VS
EPSNO 95.2¢Risks 23.80u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.80u · EPS −23.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.4% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 39.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-07 06:0010-13 18:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:000.7%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:000.1%————1.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:004.4%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0016.5%————3.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:001.7%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0017.9%————3.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0011.0%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0012.3%————5.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:009.6%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0022.8%————5.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0014.9%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0012.6%————11.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:001.0%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0016.2%————11.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0024.4%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:008.2%————14.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:003.8%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:006.8%————11.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0011.1%—0.7%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0011.0%————7.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:008.9%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:005.6%————7.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0025.5%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0012.1%————8.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:008.2%—39.0%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0040.7%—1.3%——5.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0023.5%—6.0%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0014.8%—19.8%——2.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0024.2%—23.2%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0017.6%0.0%2.1%——2.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0025.6%—2.4%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:008.5%6.0%6.9%0.2%—1.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:004.5%—9.2%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:007.9%0.8%7.4%3.1%—0.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:003.2%—7.5%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.9%0.3%5.8%0.6%—0.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.9%—1.1%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:001.4%0.2%1.1%0.6%—0.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:001.0%0.0%0.7%——0.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.5%0.1%0.5%0.1%—0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:001.0%0.1%0.4%——0.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.7%0.1%0.2%0.1%—0.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.5%0.1%0.9%——0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.3%0.0%0.5%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.2%0.1%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.3%0.3%0.2%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.2%0.1%——0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.6%0.2%0.2%——0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:001.0%0.2%0.2%0.0%0.3%0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.6%—0.1%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast11%68.0°F5.2°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 29%68.3°F4.7°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
ICON7%64.0°F7.1°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
IFS HRES7%64.6°F6.6°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
AIFS Single6%66.2°F5.4°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
National Blend1%67.0°F3.3°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%65.3°F3.5°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗