KCLE / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

85%

33%

30%

13%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 51.3¢Risks 51.30u

HRESNO 48.7¢Risks 48.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +48.70u · HRES −48.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	56.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	1.0%	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	35.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	94.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	8.8%	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	18.0%	—	—	47.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	4.2%	63.9%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	20.4%	66.4%	19.4%	—	38.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	20.4%	52.9%	48.5%	—	26.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	52.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	11.8%	57.6%	14.2%	—	22.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	65.9%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	30.9%	57.9%	15.4%	—	21.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	0.2%	31.2%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	49.2%	56.6%	24.5%	—	16.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	53.4%	30.3%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	33.8%	67.8%	4.5%	—	10.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	24.9%	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	16.6%	71.0%	7.3%	—	7.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	41.5%	74.7%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	24.7%	67.8%	24.7%	52.9%	11.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	62.8%	—	—	7.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	67.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	67.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	63.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	61.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	58.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗