KCLE / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

85%

33%

30%

13%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 51.3¢Risks 51.30u

HRESNO 48.7¢Risks 48.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +48.70u · HRES −48.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:54+00:00	63.4%	48.8%	68.7%	8.6%	51.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	63.4%	43.0%	68.7%	8.6%	51.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	63.4%	43.0%	68.7%	8.6%	51.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	63.4%	43.0%	67.8%	8.6%	51.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:28+00:00	63.4%	43.0%	67.8%	8.6%	51.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	63.4%	43.0%	67.8%	8.6%	51.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	75.4%	43.0%	67.8%	19.9%	66.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	75.4%	43.0%	67.8%	19.9%	66.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	75.4%	43.0%	67.8%	19.9%	66.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	75.4%	43.0%	67.8%	19.9%	66.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	75.4%	43.0%	67.8%	19.9%	66.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	75.4%	43.0%	80.3%	19.9%	66.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	75.4%	43.0%	80.3%	19.9%	66.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	75.4%	43.0%	80.3%	19.9%	66.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	78.5%	43.0%	80.3%	19.9%	66.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	78.5%	43.0%	80.3%	19.9%	66.5%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	78.5%	43.0%	80.3%	19.9%	66.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	78.5%	43.0%	80.3%	19.9%	66.5%
2026-10-19T04:31:00+00:00	78.5%	43.0%	80.3%	19.9%	66.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:05+00:00	78.5%	43.0%	84.7%	19.9%	66.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	78.5%	43.0%	84.7%	19.9%	66.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	78.5%	43.0%	84.7%	19.9%	66.5%
2026-10-19T07:33:17+00:00	82.0%	43.0%	84.7%	10.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	82.0%	43.0%	84.7%	10.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	82.0%	43.0%	84.7%	10.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	82.0%	43.0%	84.7%	10.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:16+00:00	82.0%	43.0%	84.7%	10.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00	82.0%	29.8%	92.6%	10.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00	82.0%	29.8%	92.6%	10.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	82.0%	29.8%	92.6%	10.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	58.6%	29.8%	92.6%	10.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	58.6%	29.8%	92.7%	10.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:36+00:00	58.6%	32.0%	92.7%	10.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	58.6%	32.0%	92.7%	10.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:18+00:00	58.6%	32.0%	92.7%	10.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	58.6%	32.0%	85.3%	10.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	58.6%	32.0%	85.3%	10.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00	58.6%	32.0%	85.3%	10.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	58.6%	32.0%	85.3%	2.9%	30.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	58.6%	32.0%	85.3%	2.9%	30.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	58.6%	32.0%	85.3%	2.9%	30.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	58.6%	32.0%	85.3%	2.9%	30.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	58.6%	32.0%	85.3%	2.9%	30.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	58.6%	32.0%	87.6%	2.9%	30.4%
2026-10-20T00:16:54+00:00	58.6%	32.0%	87.6%	2.9%	30.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	58.6%	32.0%	87.6%	2.9%	30.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	75.8%	32.0%	87.6%	2.9%	30.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	75.8%	32.0%	87.6%	2.9%	30.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	75.8%	32.0%	87.6%	2.9%	30.4%
2026-10-20T04:04:46+00:00	75.8%	32.0%	87.6%	2.9%	30.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	75.8%	32.0%	87.6%	2.9%	30.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	75.8%	32.0%	89.7%	2.9%	30.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	75.8%	32.0%	89.7%	2.9%	30.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	75.8%	32.0%	89.7%	2.9%	30.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	84.9%	32.0%	89.7%	2.9%	29.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	84.9%	32.0%	89.7%	2.9%	29.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	84.9%	32.0%	89.7%	2.9%	29.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	84.9%	32.0%	89.7%	2.9%	29.9%
2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:00	84.9%	33.0%	90.0%	12.6%	29.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	84.9%	33.0%	90.0%	12.6%	29.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	84.9%	33.0%	90.0%	12.6%	29.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	84.9%	33.0%	90.0%	12.6%	29.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00	85.0%	33.0%	90.0%	12.6%	29.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	67.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	67.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	63.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	61.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	58.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗