KCLE / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

48%

38%

26%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 27.2¢Risks 27.20u

HRESNO 72.8¢Risks 72.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +72.80u · HRES −72.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	59.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	—	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	56.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	0.4%	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	90.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	4.8%	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	10.7%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	1.9%	50.7%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	11.9%	52.8%	11.2%	—	25.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	11.7%	38.5%	34.3%	—	16.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	5.8%	42.4%	7.3%	—	12.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	50.8%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	18.4%	42.1%	7.8%	—	11.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	0.1%	18.4%	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	33.0%	40.1%	13.4%	—	8.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	17.3%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	19.6%	50.9%	1.7%	—	4.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	13.0%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	7.6%	53.7%	2.8%	—	3.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	24.6%	57.5%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	12.1%	49.0%	12.1%	33.9%	4.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	43.0%	—	—	2.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	65.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	65.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	38%	63.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	64.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	63.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	55.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗