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KCLE / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
50%
AIFS
48%
ICON
38%
EPS
26%
HRES
4%
Consensus
32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 27.2¢Risks 27.20u
VS
HRESNO 72.8¢Risks 72.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +72.80u · HRES −72.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 52.9% · 2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00AIFS Single: 52.9% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00AIFS Single: 52.9% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00AIFS Single: 52.9% · 2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00AIFS Single: 52.9% · 2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:25+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-18T11:02:49+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00AIFS Single: 47.6% · 2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.0% · 2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.2% · 2026-10-18T11:02:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.2% · 2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.2% · 2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.2% · 2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.2% · 2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T11:02:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00IFS HRES: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:25+00:00IFS HRES: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00IFS HRES: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00IFS HRES: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T11:02:49+00:00IFS HRES: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00IFS HRES: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00IFS HRES: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00IFS HRES: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00ICON: 26.5% · 2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00ICON: 26.5% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00ICON: 26.5% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00ICON: 26.5% · 2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00ICON: 26.5% · 2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:25+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-18T11:02:49+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:0010-18 04:1410-18 09:3210-18 14:04
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:0052.9%33.0%50.0%19.8%26.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:0052.9%33.0%56.8%19.8%26.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:0052.9%33.0%56.8%19.8%26.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:0052.9%33.0%56.8%19.8%26.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:0052.9%33.0%56.8%19.8%26.5%
2026-10-18T08:01:25+00:0056.4%33.0%56.8%4.4%38.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:0056.4%33.0%56.8%4.4%38.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:0056.4%33.0%56.8%4.4%38.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:0056.4%33.0%56.8%4.4%38.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:49+00:0056.4%26.2%50.0%4.4%38.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:0056.4%26.2%50.0%4.4%38.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:0056.4%26.2%50.0%4.4%38.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:0056.4%26.2%50.0%4.4%38.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:0047.6%26.2%50.0%4.4%38.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast54%66.0°F5.2°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 250%65.5°F4.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single48%65.2°F5.0°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
ICON38%63.7°F6.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend37%64.0°F4.4°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble26%63.4°F3.3°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES4%55.6°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗