KCLE / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

74%

70%

40%

33%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.4¢Risks 61.40u

EPSNO 38.6¢Risks 38.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.60u · EPS −38.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	28.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	22.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	83.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	36.6%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	0.1%	64.5%	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	6.0%	67.7%	1.6%	—	14.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	65.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	32.3%	69.6%	18.4%	—	14.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.7%	46.2%	70.4%	46.9%	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	39.0%	60.3%	24.2%	—	10.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	0.0%	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	41.7%	59.1%	26.5%	—	3.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	39.8%	65.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	57.0%	62.9%	26.2%	47.4%	10.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	69.0%	—	—	8.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	70.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	68.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	70%	68.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	64.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	63.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261024-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗