KCLE / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

74%

70%

40%

33%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.4¢Risks 61.40u

EPSNO 38.6¢Risks 38.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.60u · EPS −38.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:09+00:00	52.1%	36.0%	57.0%	39.0%	34.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	52.1%	36.0%	63.0%	39.0%	34.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	52.1%	36.0%	63.0%	39.0%	34.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00	52.1%	36.0%	63.0%	39.0%	34.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	52.1%	36.0%	63.0%	39.0%	34.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:25+00:00	57.3%	36.0%	63.0%	18.6%	56.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	57.3%	36.0%	63.0%	18.6%	56.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	57.3%	36.0%	63.0%	18.6%	56.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	57.3%	36.0%	63.0%	18.6%	56.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:49+00:00	57.3%	21.0%	64.2%	18.6%	56.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	57.3%	21.0%	64.2%	18.6%	56.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00	57.3%	21.0%	64.2%	18.6%	56.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	57.3%	21.0%	64.2%	18.6%	56.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	52.9%	21.3%	64.2%	18.6%	56.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:54+00:00	52.9%	21.3%	64.2%	18.6%	56.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	52.9%	17.6%	64.2%	18.6%	56.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	52.9%	17.6%	64.2%	18.6%	56.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	52.9%	17.6%	68.1%	18.6%	56.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:28+00:00	52.9%	17.6%	68.1%	18.6%	56.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	52.9%	17.6%	68.1%	18.6%	56.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	59.5%	17.6%	68.1%	39.3%	67.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	59.5%	17.6%	68.1%	39.3%	67.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	59.5%	17.6%	68.1%	39.3%	67.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	59.5%	17.6%	68.1%	39.3%	67.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	59.5%	17.6%	68.1%	39.3%	67.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	59.5%	17.6%	77.3%	39.3%	67.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	59.5%	17.6%	77.3%	39.3%	67.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	59.5%	17.6%	77.3%	39.3%	67.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	58.1%	17.6%	77.3%	39.3%	67.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	58.1%	17.6%	77.3%	39.3%	67.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	58.1%	17.6%	77.3%	39.3%	67.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	58.1%	17.6%	77.3%	39.3%	67.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:00+00:00	58.1%	17.6%	77.3%	39.3%	67.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:05+00:00	58.1%	17.6%	80.4%	39.3%	67.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	58.1%	17.6%	80.4%	39.3%	67.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	58.1%	17.6%	80.4%	39.3%	67.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:17+00:00	64.9%	17.6%	80.4%	15.0%	58.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	64.9%	17.6%	80.4%	15.0%	58.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	64.9%	17.6%	80.4%	15.0%	58.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	64.9%	17.6%	80.4%	15.0%	58.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:16+00:00	64.9%	17.6%	80.4%	15.0%	58.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00	64.9%	23.7%	93.4%	15.0%	58.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00	64.9%	23.7%	93.4%	15.0%	58.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	64.9%	23.7%	93.4%	15.0%	58.4%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	45.2%	23.7%	93.4%	15.0%	58.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	45.2%	23.7%	93.4%	15.0%	58.4%
2026-10-20T04:04:46+00:00	59.6%	25.0%	91.0%	7.8%	61.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	59.6%	25.0%	91.0%	7.8%	61.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	59.6%	25.0%	87.4%	7.8%	61.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	59.6%	25.0%	87.4%	7.8%	61.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	59.6%	25.0%	87.4%	7.8%	61.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	73.7%	25.0%	87.4%	7.8%	69.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	73.7%	25.0%	87.4%	7.8%	69.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	73.7%	25.0%	87.4%	7.8%	69.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	73.7%	25.0%	87.4%	7.8%	69.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:00	73.7%	33.3%	89.7%	40.5%	69.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	73.7%	33.3%	89.7%	40.5%	69.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	73.7%	33.3%	89.7%	40.5%	69.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	73.7%	33.3%	89.7%	40.5%	69.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00	73.7%	33.1%	89.7%	40.5%	69.7%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	73.7%	33.1%	89.7%	40.5%	69.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	70.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	68.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	70%	68.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	64.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	63.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261024-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗