KCLE / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

45%

33%

30%

27%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 38.0¢Risks 38.05u

EPSNO 61.9¢Risks 61.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +61.95u · EPS −61.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	—	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	79.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	30.6%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	0.1%	58.1%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	4.2%	61.1%	1.0%	—	10.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	26.0%	62.9%	14.0%	—	10.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	38.7%	63.5%	39.4%	—	13.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	31.6%	52.4%	18.4%	—	6.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	0.0%	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	33.8%	50.8%	20.1%	—	2.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	31.9%	57.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	48.2%	54.4%	19.6%	38.8%	7.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	60.7%	—	—	5.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	54%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	66.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	65.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	63.7°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	30%	61.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	64.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261024-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 67°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗