KCLE / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

13%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 9.6¢Risks 4.80u

EPSNO 90.4¢Risks 45.20u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.20u · EPS −45.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	39.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	5.0%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.0%	16.3%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.1%	17.1%	0.0%	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	2.7%	17.0%	0.9%	—	0.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	5.2%	16.0%	5.4%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	3.0%	9.0%	1.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.0%	9.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	3.0%	7.4%	1.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	2.4%	9.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	5.7%	7.7%	0.8%	3.4%	0.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	9.6%	—	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	19%	70.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	68.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	13%	68.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	64.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	63.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261024-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗