KCLE / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

81%

81%

60%

56%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.6¢Risks 76.55u

EPSNO 23.4¢Risks 23.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.45u · EPS −23.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	72.8%	—	—	—	—	28.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	25.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	36.9%	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	68.2%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	0.0%	15.9%	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	48.6%	61.1%	7.4%	—	23.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	52.2%	36.4%	18.4%	—	22.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	56.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	51.5%	61.3%	25.1%	—	17.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	70.5%	71.9%	33.7%	46.0%	31.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	78.2%	—	—	25.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	75.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	81%	72.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	71.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261025-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗