KCLE / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

81%

81%

60%

56%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.6¢Risks 76.55u

EPSNO 23.4¢Risks 23.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.45u · EPS −23.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:37+00:00	56.6%	27.6%	94.1%	38.7%	70.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	56.6%	27.6%	94.1%	38.7%	70.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:18+00:00	56.6%	27.6%	94.1%	38.7%	70.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	56.6%	27.6%	96.2%	38.7%	70.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	56.6%	27.6%	96.2%	38.7%	70.8%
2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00	56.6%	27.6%	96.2%	38.7%	70.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	55.9%	27.6%	96.2%	49.4%	70.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	55.9%	27.6%	96.2%	49.4%	70.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	55.9%	27.6%	96.2%	49.4%	70.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	55.9%	27.6%	96.2%	49.4%	70.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	55.9%	27.6%	96.2%	49.4%	70.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	55.9%	27.6%	97.3%	49.4%	70.3%
2026-10-20T00:16:54+00:00	55.9%	27.6%	97.3%	49.4%	70.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	55.9%	27.6%	97.3%	49.4%	70.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	67.8%	27.6%	97.3%	49.4%	70.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	67.8%	27.6%	97.3%	49.4%	70.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	67.8%	27.6%	97.3%	49.4%	70.3%
2026-10-20T04:04:46+00:00	67.8%	27.6%	97.3%	49.4%	70.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	67.8%	27.6%	97.3%	49.4%	70.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	67.8%	27.6%	95.7%	49.4%	70.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	67.8%	27.6%	95.7%	49.4%	70.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	67.8%	27.6%	95.7%	49.4%	70.3%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	80.8%	27.6%	95.7%	49.4%	81.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	80.8%	27.6%	95.7%	49.4%	81.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	80.8%	27.6%	95.7%	49.4%	81.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	80.8%	27.6%	95.7%	49.4%	81.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:00	80.8%	55.8%	97.3%	60.2%	81.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	80.8%	55.8%	97.3%	60.2%	81.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	80.8%	55.8%	97.3%	60.2%	81.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	80.8%	55.8%	97.3%	60.2%	81.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00	80.8%	55.8%	97.3%	60.3%	81.2%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	80.8%	55.8%	97.3%	60.3%	81.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	75.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	81%	72.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	71.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261025-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗