KCLE / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

66%

58%

56%

56%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 64.8¢Risks 32.40u

ICONNO 35.2¢Risks 17.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.60u · ICON −17.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	—	—	—	25.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	73.4%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	2.1%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	14.1%	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	0.2%	37.4%	—	—	19.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	57.7%	18.4%	3.9%	—	19.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	31.7%	79.0%	31.7%	52.9%	21.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	80.0%	—	—	2.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	74%	70.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	69.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	68.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	56%	68.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261026-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗