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KCLE / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
74%
AIFS
66%
HRES
58%
EPS
56%
ICON
56%
Consensus
59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 64.8¢Risks 32.40u
VS
ICONNO 35.2¢Risks 17.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.60u · ICON −17.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 19.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:46+00:00AIFS Single: 19.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 19.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00AIFS Single: 19.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 19.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.8% · 2026-10-20T04:04:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.8% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.9% · 2026-10-20T04:04:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T04:04:46+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS HRES: 57.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:00IFS HRES: 57.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 57.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 57.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 57.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00IFS HRES: 57.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00ICON: 71.5% · 2026-10-20T04:04:46+00:00ICON: 71.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00ICON: 71.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00ICON: 71.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 71.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00ICON: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00ICON: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00ICON: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00ICON: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00ICON: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:00ICON: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00ICON: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 09:2210-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:46+00:0019.2%48.8%53.9%54.9%71.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:0019.2%48.8%53.9%54.9%71.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:0019.2%48.8%60.8%54.9%71.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0019.2%48.8%60.8%54.9%71.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:0019.2%48.8%60.8%54.9%71.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:0066.5%48.8%60.8%54.9%55.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:0066.5%48.8%60.8%54.9%55.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:0066.5%48.8%60.8%54.9%55.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:0066.5%48.8%60.8%54.9%55.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:0066.5%55.8%74.0%57.8%55.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0066.5%55.8%74.0%57.8%55.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0066.5%55.8%74.0%57.8%55.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0066.5%55.8%74.0%57.8%55.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:0066.5%55.8%74.0%57.8%55.6%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:0066.5%55.8%74.0%57.8%55.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 274%70.5°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single66%69.8°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES58%68.8°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble56%68.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON56%68.5°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%68.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend46%67.0°F4.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261026-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗