KCLE / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

33%

31%

29%

29%

Consensus

17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 21.4¢Risks 21.35u

EPSNO 78.6¢Risks 78.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +78.65u · EPS −78.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	44.6%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	2.9%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.0%	12.1%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	24.6%	3.8%	0.4%	—	4.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	8.2%	45.6%	8.2%	19.9%	4.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	46.3%	—	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	33%	70.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	31%	69.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	68.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	29%	68.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261026-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗