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KCLE / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
91%
AIFS
85%
WN2
81%
HRES
44%
ICON
33%
Consensus
76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 62.0¢Risks 62.00u
VS
ICONNO 38.0¢Risks 38.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +38.00u · ICON −38.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.3% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.7% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 90.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 81.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 86.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 49.5% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 78.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 84.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 71.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.9% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 52.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 96.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 85.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 72.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 69.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 77.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 47.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 39.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 44.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 50.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 52.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 52.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 54.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 49.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 53.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:009.1%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:005.8%———27.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0044.2%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0034.0%———47.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0070.3%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0035.4%———43.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0031.1%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0053.2%———39.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0044.7%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:009.8%———44.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0042.1%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0090.9%———48.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0081.4%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0086.0%———50.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0049.5%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0072.1%———52.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0078.8%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0074.4%———52.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0068.3%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0084.0%———54.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0085.0%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0065.0%———49.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0071.4%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0058.2%—27.3%—53.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0043.5%—52.4%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0026.2%———48.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0010.2%—25.3%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0015.3%—96.0%—50.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:007.0%—85.1%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0039.7%—21.2%—48.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0010.6%—20.3%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0063.3%6.2%72.9%77.7%43.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0058.9%—69.2%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble91%66.9°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single85%66.4°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 281%64.9°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend53%61.0°F7.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES44%59.5°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON33%56.0°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261027-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 61°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗