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KCLE / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
91%
AIFS
85%
WN2
81%
HRES
44%
ICON
33%
Consensus
76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 62.0¢Risks 62.00u
VS
ICONNO 38.0¢Risks 38.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +38.00u · ICON −38.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 84.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:00AIFS Single: 84.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 84.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 84.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00AIFS Single: 84.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00IFS HRES: 43.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:00IFS HRES: 43.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 43.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 43.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 43.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:0084.8%91.3%80.6%43.8%32.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0084.8%91.3%80.6%43.8%32.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0084.8%91.3%80.6%43.8%32.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0084.8%91.3%80.6%43.8%32.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:0084.8%91.3%80.6%43.8%32.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble91%66.9°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single85%66.4°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 281%64.9°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend53%61.0°F7.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES44%59.5°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON33%56.0°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261027-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 61°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗