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KCLE / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
14%
EPS
12%
WN2
7%
ICON
5%
HRES
2%
Consensus
4%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 8.3¢Risks 4.15u
VS
HRESNO 91.7¢Risks 45.85u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.85u · HRES −45.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 44.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 10.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.2%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.1%———1.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:004.0%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:002.2%———4.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0014.3%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:002.4%———3.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:001.8%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:006.4%———3.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:004.2%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.2%———4.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:003.6%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0039.5%———5.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0024.0%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0030.1%———5.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:005.3%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0015.6%———6.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0021.2%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0017.1%———6.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0012.4%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0025.4%———6.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0026.0%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:009.3%———4.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0012.1%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:005.9%—0.9%—4.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:002.5%—4.1%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.7%———3.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.1%—0.6%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.2%—44.4%—3.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%—18.9%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:001.3%—0.3%—2.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.1%—0.2%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:004.5%0.0%7.7%10.2%1.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:003.2%—5.8%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single14%66.4°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble12%66.9°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 27%64.9°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend7%61.0°F7.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON5%56.0°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES2%59.5°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261027-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗