WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KCLE / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
14%
EPS
12%
WN2
7%
ICON
5%
HRES
2%
Consensus
4%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 8.3¢Risks 4.15u
VS
HRESNO 91.7¢Risks 45.85u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.85u · HRES −45.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00IFS HRES: 2.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00IFS HRES: 2.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 2.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 2.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 2.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:0014.4%11.7%6.8%2.2%5.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0014.4%11.7%6.8%2.2%5.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0014.4%11.7%6.8%2.2%5.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0014.4%11.7%6.8%2.2%5.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:0014.4%11.7%6.8%2.2%5.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single14%66.4°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble12%66.9°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 27%64.9°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend7%61.0°F7.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON5%56.0°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES2%59.5°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261027-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗