KCLT / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 18:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

29%

28%

26%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 14.8¢Risks 14.75u

AIFSNO 85.2¢Risks 85.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +85.25u · AIFS −85.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	0.7%	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	17.3%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	6.5%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	3.5%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	8.8%	78.2%	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.8%	13.0%	24.1%	—	2.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	9.0%	14.0%	—	2.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	15.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	5.4%	0.2%	—	0.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.5%	17.4%	0.4%	—	0.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	2.8%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%	0.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	8.4%	1.6%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.4%	10.7%	1.9%	—	0.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.2%	6.6%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.9%	6.1%	1.0%	—	0.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.8%	5.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.3%	5.3%	0.1%	12.5%	0.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.8%	10.7%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.3%	7.6%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.3%	1.7%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.1%	1.7%	0.0%	7.1%	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.9%	2.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.0%	4.6%	0.0%	6.1%	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.3%	3.7%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.5%	1.5%	0.0%	2.5%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	29%	78.3°F	5.9°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0864
ICON	28%	75.9°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0812
IFS HRES	26%	77.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0655
National Blend	7%	70.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0048
NWS forecast	4%	71.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 14:00	0.0013
AIFS Single	<1%	65.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	<1%	67.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261017-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 10 · 22:26 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗