KCLT / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 18:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

29%

28%

26%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 14.8¢Risks 14.75u

AIFSNO 85.2¢Risks 85.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +85.25u · AIFS −85.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:58:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:26:47+00:00	0.3%	24.3%	0.3%	13.8%	28.5%
2026-10-10T23:13:30+00:00	0.3%	24.3%	0.3%	13.8%	28.5%
2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00	0.3%	24.3%	0.3%	13.8%	28.5%
2026-10-11T00:43:44+00:00	0.3%	24.3%	0.3%	13.8%	28.5%
2026-10-11T01:28:59+00:00	0.3%	24.3%	0.3%	13.8%	28.5%
2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00	0.3%	24.3%	0.3%	13.8%	28.5%
2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:00	0.3%	24.3%	0.3%	13.8%	28.5%
2026-10-11T03:44:40+00:00	0.3%	24.3%	0.3%	13.8%	28.5%
2026-10-11T04:30:42+00:00	0.3%	24.3%	0.3%	13.8%	28.5%
2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00	0.3%	24.3%	0.2%	13.8%	28.5%
2026-10-11T06:01:15+00:00	0.3%	24.3%	0.2%	13.8%	28.5%
2026-10-11T06:46:25+00:00	0.3%	24.3%	0.2%	13.8%	28.5%
2026-10-11T07:31:40+00:00	0.1%	24.3%	0.2%	25.6%	28.5%
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	0.1%	24.3%	0.2%	25.6%	28.5%
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00	0.1%	24.3%	0.2%	25.6%	28.5%
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	0.1%	24.3%	0.2%	25.6%	28.5%
2026-10-11T10:33:35+00:00	0.1%	24.3%	0.2%	25.6%	28.5%
2026-10-11T11:19:43+00:00	0.1%	31.5%	0.1%	25.6%	28.5%
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00	0.1%	31.5%	0.1%	25.6%	28.5%
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00	0.1%	31.5%	0.1%	25.6%	28.5%
2026-10-11T13:35:38+00:00	0.1%	31.5%	0.1%	25.6%	28.5%
2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00	0.1%	31.8%	0.1%	25.6%	28.5%
2026-10-11T15:11:28+00:00	0.1%	29.4%	0.1%	25.6%	28.5%
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	0.1%	29.4%	0.1%	25.6%	28.5%
2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00	0.1%	29.4%	0.1%	25.6%	28.5%
2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:00	0.1%	29.4%	0.1%	25.6%	28.5%
2026-10-11T18:13:08+00:00	0.1%	29.4%	0.1%	25.6%	28.5%
2026-10-11T18:58:17+00:00	0.1%	29.4%	0.1%	25.6%	28.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	29%	78.3°F	5.9°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0864
ICON	28%	75.9°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0812
IFS HRES	26%	77.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0655
National Blend	7%	70.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0048
NWS forecast	4%	71.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 14:00	0.0013
AIFS Single	<1%	65.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	<1%	67.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261017-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 10 · 22:26 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗