KCLT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

97%

96%

80%

74%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 86.3¢Risks 86.35u

ICONNO 13.7¢Risks 13.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +13.65u · ICON −13.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	94.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	97.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	96.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	94.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	94.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	92.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	90.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	—	—	—	89.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	31.3%	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	95.5%	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	46.8%	—	—	84.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	27.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	27.1%	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	80.1%	70.8%	45.1%	72.5%	—	79.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	85.2%	86.9%	72.8%	72.2%	—	86.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	78.9%	99.7%	78.9%	84.5%	—	80.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	89.6%	86.9%	77.6%	—	75.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	9.5%	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	92.9%	91.3%	73.5%	—	70.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	82.2%	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.7%	85.4%	89.9%	62.1%	—	45.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	72.9%	88.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	65.3%	87.1%	42.7%	—	31.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	76.2%	67.4%	85.2%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	73.7%	82.3%	57.7%	—	47.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	82.3%	81.0%	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	70.6%	84.9%	78.1%	—	63.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	78.7%	66.5%	78.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	75.3%	67.9%	77.8%	—	47.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	76.0%	75.1%	1.3%	—	57.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	81.7%	78.5%	72.0%	81.0%	—	70.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	84.0%	82.5%	82.5%	80.1%	—	70.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	87.0%	87.0%	87.0%	80.1%	55.0%	71.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	87.2%	87.2%	80.9%	—	74.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	86.6%	89.9%	83.5%	54.0%	74.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	90.2%	89.6%	82.7%	—	76.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	92.7%	92.7%	93.7%	85.4%	60.1%	78.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	92.0%	93.5%	95.2%	87.2%	—	71.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	88.3%	91.1%	95.9%	83.9%	57.9%	63.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	95.1%	95.1%	87.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	64.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0003
AIFS Single	97%	65.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0012
WeatherNext 2	96%	63.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0018
National Blend	87%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0164
IFS HRES	80%	61.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0380
ICON	74%	60.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0660
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗