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KCLT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
98%
AIFS
97%
WN2
96%
HRES
80%
ICON
74%
Consensus
93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 86.3¢Risks 86.35u
VS
ICONNO 13.7¢Risks 13.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +13.65u · ICON −13.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 95.7% · 2026-10-17T04:41:10+00:00AIFS Single: 95.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00AIFS Single: 95.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00AIFS Single: 95.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00AIFS Single: 96.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00AIFS Single: 96.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00AIFS Single: 96.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00AIFS Single: 96.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 96.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00AIFS Single: 96.8% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00AIFS Single: 96.8% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00AIFS Single: 96.8% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00AIFS Single: 96.6% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00AIFS Single: 96.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.7% · 2026-10-17T04:41:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.5% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.5% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.5% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.5% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.4% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.7% · 2026-10-17T04:41:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00IFS HRES: 78.2% · 2026-10-17T04:41:10+00:00IFS HRES: 78.2% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00IFS HRES: 78.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00IFS HRES: 78.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00IFS HRES: 80.5% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00IFS HRES: 80.5% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS HRES: 80.5% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00IFS HRES: 80.5% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 80.5% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS HRES: 80.5% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00IFS HRES: 80.5% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 80.5% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS HRES: 80.5% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00IFS HRES: 80.5% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00ICON: 75.1% · 2026-10-17T04:41:10+00:00ICON: 75.1% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00ICON: 75.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00ICON: 75.1% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00ICON: 74.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00ICON: 74.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00ICON: 74.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00ICON: 74.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00ICON: 74.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00ICON: 74.3% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00ICON: 74.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00ICON: 74.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00ICON: 74.3% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00ICON: 74.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:10+00:0095.7%89.7%94.7%78.2%75.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:0095.7%89.7%95.6%78.2%75.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:0095.7%89.7%95.6%78.2%75.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:0095.7%89.7%95.6%78.2%75.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:0096.8%89.7%95.6%80.5%74.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:0096.8%89.7%95.6%80.5%74.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:0096.8%89.7%95.6%80.5%74.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:0096.8%89.7%95.6%80.5%74.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:0096.8%89.7%95.6%80.5%74.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:0096.8%98.5%95.7%80.5%74.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:0096.8%98.5%95.7%80.5%74.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:0096.8%98.5%95.7%80.5%74.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:0096.6%98.5%95.7%80.5%74.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:0096.6%98.4%95.7%80.5%74.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble98%64.9°F3.0°F2026-10-17 00:000.0003
AIFS Single97%65.7°F3.9°F2026-10-17 06:000.0012
WeatherNext 296%63.5°F2.9°F2026-10-17 00:000.0018
National Blend87%61.0°F2.2°F2026-10-17 06:000.0164
IFS HRES80%61.7°F3.7°F2026-10-17 00:000.0380
ICON74%60.8°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:000.0660
NWS forecast56%59.0°F3.1°F2026-10-17 03:000.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗