KCLT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

90%

84%

70%

65%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 79.2¢Risks 79.20u

ICONNO 20.8¢Risks 20.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +20.80u · ICON −20.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	92.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	96.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	95.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	92.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	92.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	89.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	89.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	87.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	—	—	—	86.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	26.2%	—	—	85.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	93.9%	—	—	76.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	40.3%	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	21.8%	—	—	63.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	64.4%	38.2%	66.4%	—	74.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	82.5%	66.3%	65.7%	—	81.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	99.4%	73.0%	79.5%	—	74.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.8%	85.5%	82.1%	71.2%	—	69.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	6.5%	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.2%	89.5%	87.5%	66.2%	—	62.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	76.0%	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	55.2%	79.8%	85.4%	53.5%	—	37.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	64.9%	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	56.4%	81.6%	33.9%	—	23.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.2%	58.5%	79.0%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	65.2%	75.3%	48.0%	—	37.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	75.1%	73.5%	83.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	61.2%	78.1%	69.7%	—	53.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	56.3%	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	65.9%	57.6%	68.9%	—	37.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	66.4%	65.4%	0.6%	—	46.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	69.0%	61.5%	72.0%	—	59.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	73.7%	73.7%	70.7%	—	59.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	79.2%	79.2%	70.2%	42.6%	59.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	79.1%	79.1%	79.1%	70.9%	—	62.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	78.0%	82.7%	73.9%	40.7%	63.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	82.7%	81.8%	72.4%	—	65.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	86.2%	86.2%	87.8%	75.5%	45.7%	66.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	84.7%	87.2%	90.1%	77.6%	—	57.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	78.6%	82.9%	91.1%	72.4%	42.1%	48.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	89.3%	89.3%	77.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	93%	65.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0049
WeatherNext 2	90%	63.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0096
IFS Ensemble	84%	63.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0259
IFS HRES	70%	61.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0876
ICON	65%	60.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1197
NWS forecast	56%	60.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1954
National Blend	55%	60.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.2061

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗