KCLT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

90%

84%

70%

65%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 79.2¢Risks 79.20u

ICONNO 20.8¢Risks 20.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +20.80u · ICON −20.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:00	93.6%	78.8%	91.4%	64.8%	71.9%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	93.6%	78.8%	91.4%	64.8%	71.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	93.6%	78.8%	94.5%	64.8%	71.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:36+00:00	93.6%	78.8%	94.5%	64.8%	71.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00	93.6%	78.8%	94.5%	64.8%	71.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	93.6%	78.8%	94.5%	64.8%	71.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	91.2%	78.8%	94.5%	66.5%	67.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	91.2%	78.8%	94.5%	66.5%	67.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	91.2%	78.8%	94.5%	66.5%	67.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	91.2%	78.8%	94.5%	66.5%	67.5%
2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00	91.2%	78.8%	91.8%	66.5%	67.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	91.2%	78.8%	91.8%	66.5%	67.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	91.2%	78.8%	91.8%	66.5%	67.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	91.2%	78.8%	91.8%	66.5%	67.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:09+00:00	91.2%	78.8%	91.8%	66.5%	67.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	91.2%	78.8%	91.8%	66.5%	67.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	91.2%	78.8%	91.8%	66.5%	67.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00	92.3%	83.9%	88.4%	54.9%	63.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	92.3%	83.9%	88.4%	54.9%	63.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	92.3%	83.9%	88.4%	54.9%	63.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	92.3%	83.9%	89.6%	54.9%	63.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	92.3%	83.9%	89.6%	54.9%	63.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	92.3%	83.9%	89.6%	54.9%	63.3%
2026-10-16T19:36:54+00:00	92.3%	83.9%	89.6%	54.9%	65.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	92.3%	83.9%	89.6%	54.9%	65.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	92.3%	83.9%	89.6%	54.9%	65.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	92.3%	83.9%	89.6%	54.9%	65.4%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	92.3%	83.9%	89.6%	70.4%	65.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:20+00:00	92.3%	83.9%	90.2%	70.4%	65.4%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	92.3%	83.9%	90.2%	70.4%	65.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	92.3%	83.9%	90.2%	70.4%	65.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	93.0%	83.9%	90.2%	70.4%	65.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	93.0%	83.9%	90.2%	70.4%	65.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	93.0%	83.9%	90.2%	70.4%	65.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	93.0%	83.9%	90.2%	70.4%	65.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	93%	65.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0049
WeatherNext 2	90%	63.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0096
IFS Ensemble	84%	63.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0259
IFS HRES	70%	61.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0876
ICON	65%	60.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1197
NWS forecast	56%	60.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1954
National Blend	55%	60.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.2061

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗