KCLT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

87%

80%

51%

39%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 64.1¢Risks 64.15u

ICONNO 35.9¢Risks 35.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +35.85u · ICON −35.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	91.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	84.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	79.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	17.3%	—	—	76.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	89.0%	—	—	65.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	28.4%	—	—	69.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	13.2%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	50.7%	25.7%	52.8%	—	61.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	71.5%	52.2%	51.5%	—	70.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	98.3%	59.1%	67.0%	—	61.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	49.2%	74.5%	69.8%	56.4%	—	54.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	2.7%	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	79.9%	76.8%	50.0%	—	45.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	61.0%	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	65.4%	73.1%	36.3%	—	22.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	47.3%	70.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	38.2%	67.0%	19.0%	—	11.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	39.7%	63.0%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	49.0%	46.1%	57.7%	29.6%	—	21.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	55.0%	68.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	40.8%	60.2%	50.0%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	35.5%	48.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	44.5%	36.1%	47.8%	—	19.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	44.4%	43.3%	0.1%	—	25.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	46.5%	38.5%	50.0%	—	36.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	51.2%	51.2%	47.6%	—	35.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	57.4%	57.4%	46.3%	20.8%	35.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	56.4%	56.4%	46.1%	—	37.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	56.7%	54.0%	60.6%	48.7%	18.2%	36.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	59.7%	58.3%	45.8%	—	37.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	64.2%	64.2%	66.9%	48.5%	20.2%	38.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	64.8%	70.2%	50.0%	—	28.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	56.3%	71.0%	42.1%	16.1%	20.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	66.1%	66.1%	46.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	65.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0110
AIFS Single	87%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0161
WeatherNext 2	80%	63.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0420
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
IFS HRES	51%	61.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2391
National Blend	41%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3457
ICON	39%	60.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3745

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗