KCLT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

87%

80%

51%

39%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 64.1¢Risks 64.15u

ICONNO 35.9¢Risks 35.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +35.85u · ICON −35.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:11+00:00	89.1%	72.0%	80.2%	78.0%	68.0%
2026-10-12T04:47:13+00:00	89.1%	72.0%	80.2%	78.0%	68.0%
2026-10-12T05:32:19+00:00	89.1%	72.0%	82.4%	78.0%	68.0%
2026-10-12T06:17:27+00:00	89.1%	72.0%	82.4%	78.0%	68.0%
2026-10-12T07:02:33+00:00	89.1%	72.0%	82.4%	78.0%	68.0%
2026-10-12T07:47:51+00:00	88.6%	72.0%	82.4%	83.5%	82.7%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00	88.6%	72.0%	82.4%	83.5%	82.7%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00	88.6%	72.0%	82.4%	83.5%	82.7%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00	88.6%	72.0%	82.4%	83.5%	82.7%
2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00	88.6%	72.0%	82.4%	83.5%	82.7%
2026-10-12T11:35:24+00:00	88.6%	72.0%	94.6%	83.5%	82.7%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	88.6%	87.8%	94.6%	83.5%	82.7%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	88.6%	87.8%	94.6%	83.5%	82.7%
2026-10-12T13:51:04+00:00	78.6%	87.8%	94.6%	83.5%	82.7%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	78.6%	87.4%	94.5%	83.5%	82.6%
2026-10-15T04:01:52+00:00	79.6%	67.4%	74.9%	28.8%	53.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:51+00:00	79.6%	67.4%	74.9%	28.8%	53.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	79.6%	67.4%	79.0%	28.8%	53.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	79.6%	67.4%	79.0%	28.8%	53.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	79.6%	67.4%	79.0%	28.8%	53.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:10+00:00	80.6%	67.4%	79.0%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	80.6%	67.4%	79.0%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	80.6%	67.4%	79.0%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:28+00:00	80.6%	67.4%	79.0%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	80.6%	67.4%	79.0%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:09+00:00	80.6%	67.4%	78.0%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	80.6%	57.3%	78.0%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:09+00:00	80.6%	57.3%	78.0%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	85.3%	57.3%	78.0%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	85.3%	57.3%	78.0%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:55+00:00	81.3%	60.5%	78.8%	49.1%	48.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	81.3%	60.5%	77.1%	49.1%	48.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:51+00:00	81.3%	60.5%	77.1%	49.1%	48.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	81.3%	60.5%	77.1%	49.1%	48.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	79.1%	60.5%	77.1%	49.1%	41.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	79.1%	60.5%	77.1%	49.1%	41.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	79.1%	60.5%	77.1%	49.1%	41.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	79.1%	60.5%	77.1%	49.1%	41.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	79.1%	60.5%	77.1%	49.1%	41.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:07+00:00	79.1%	60.9%	70.8%	49.1%	41.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	79.1%	60.9%	70.8%	49.1%	41.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	79.1%	60.9%	70.8%	49.1%	41.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00	82.5%	60.9%	70.8%	35.7%	41.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	82.5%	60.8%	70.8%	35.7%	41.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	85.7%	89.6%	75.4%	52.1%	42.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	85.7%	89.6%	75.4%	52.1%	42.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	85.7%	89.6%	74.3%	52.1%	42.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	85.7%	89.6%	74.3%	52.1%	42.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	85.7%	89.6%	74.3%	52.1%	42.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	85.7%	89.6%	74.3%	52.1%	42.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	85.7%	89.6%	74.3%	51.1%	38.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	85.7%	89.6%	74.3%	51.1%	38.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	85.7%	89.6%	74.3%	51.1%	38.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	85.7%	89.6%	74.3%	51.1%	38.8%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	85.7%	89.6%	75.4%	51.1%	38.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	85.7%	89.5%	75.4%	51.1%	38.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	85.7%	89.5%	75.4%	51.1%	38.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	85.7%	89.5%	75.4%	51.1%	38.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	87.3%	89.5%	75.4%	51.1%	38.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	87.3%	89.5%	75.4%	51.1%	38.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	87.3%	89.5%	75.4%	51.1%	38.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:46+00:00	87.3%	89.5%	75.4%	51.1%	38.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	87.3%	89.5%	79.5%	51.1%	38.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	87.3%	89.5%	79.5%	51.1%	38.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	87.3%	89.5%	79.5%	51.1%	38.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	87.3%	89.5%	79.5%	51.1%	38.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	65.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0110
AIFS Single	87%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0161
WeatherNext 2	80%	63.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0420
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
IFS HRES	51%	61.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2391
National Blend	41%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3457
ICON	39%	60.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3745

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗