KCLT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≤ 61°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

49%

20%

13%

10%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 35.9¢Risks 35.85u

EPSNO 64.1¢Risks 64.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +64.15u · EPS −64.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	82.7%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	11.0%	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	71.6%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	86.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	86.8%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	85.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	49.3%	74.3%	47.2%	—	38.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	28.5%	47.8%	48.5%	—	29.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	1.7%	40.9%	33.0%	—	38.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	25.5%	30.1%	43.6%	—	46.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	97.3%	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	20.1%	23.2%	50.0%	—	54.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	39.0%	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	34.6%	26.9%	63.7%	—	77.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.8%	52.7%	29.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	61.8%	33.0%	81.0%	—	88.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	60.3%	37.0%	—	—	85.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.0%	53.9%	42.3%	70.4%	—	79.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	45.0%	31.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	59.2%	39.8%	50.0%	—	67.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	64.5%	51.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	55.5%	63.9%	52.2%	—	81.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	55.6%	56.7%	99.9%	—	74.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	53.5%	61.5%	50.0%	—	63.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	48.8%	48.8%	52.4%	—	64.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	42.6%	42.6%	53.7%	79.2%	64.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	43.6%	43.6%	53.9%	—	62.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.3%	46.0%	39.4%	51.3%	81.8%	63.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	40.3%	41.7%	54.2%	—	62.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	35.8%	35.8%	33.1%	51.4%	79.8%	61.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	35.2%	29.8%	50.0%	—	71.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	43.7%	29.0%	57.9%	83.9%	79.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	33.9%	33.9%	53.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	61%	60.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3745
National Blend	59%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3457
IFS HRES	49%	61.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2391
NWS forecast	41%	62.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
WeatherNext 2	20%	63.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0420
AIFS Single	13%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0161
IFS Ensemble	10%	65.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0110

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 61°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261018-TMAX-LE61
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 61°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗