KCLT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≤ 61°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

49%

20%

13%

10%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 35.9¢Risks 35.85u

EPSNO 64.1¢Risks 64.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +64.15u · EPS −64.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:20+00:00	30.1%	16.6%	19.8%	52.4%	24.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:39+00:00	30.1%	35.4%	22.6%	52.4%	24.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	30.1%	35.4%	22.6%	52.4%	24.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	30.1%	35.4%	22.6%	52.4%	24.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	27.1%	35.4%	22.6%	52.4%	24.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	27.1%	35.4%	22.6%	52.4%	23.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:06+00:00	27.1%	32.6%	22.6%	52.4%	23.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:53+00:00	27.1%	32.6%	22.6%	52.4%	23.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	27.1%	32.6%	22.6%	52.4%	23.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	27.1%	32.6%	32.4%	52.4%	23.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	27.1%	32.6%	32.4%	52.4%	23.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	27.1%	32.6%	32.4%	52.4%	23.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	21.7%	32.6%	32.4%	71.2%	46.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	21.7%	32.6%	32.4%	71.2%	46.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	21.7%	32.6%	32.4%	71.2%	46.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	21.7%	32.6%	32.4%	71.2%	46.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	21.7%	32.6%	32.4%	71.2%	46.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	21.7%	32.6%	25.1%	71.2%	46.7%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	21.7%	32.6%	25.1%	71.2%	46.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:09+00:00	21.7%	32.6%	25.1%	71.2%	46.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	20.4%	32.6%	25.1%	71.2%	46.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	20.4%	32.6%	25.1%	71.2%	46.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	20.4%	32.6%	25.1%	71.2%	46.7%
2026-10-15T04:01:52+00:00	20.4%	32.6%	25.1%	71.2%	46.7%
2026-10-15T04:47:51+00:00	20.4%	32.6%	25.1%	71.2%	46.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	20.4%	32.6%	21.0%	71.2%	46.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	20.4%	32.6%	21.0%	71.2%	46.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	20.4%	32.6%	21.0%	71.2%	46.7%
2026-10-15T07:49:10+00:00	19.4%	32.6%	21.0%	52.7%	47.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	19.4%	32.6%	21.0%	52.7%	47.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	19.4%	32.6%	21.0%	52.7%	47.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:28+00:00	19.4%	32.6%	21.0%	52.7%	47.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	19.4%	32.6%	21.0%	52.7%	47.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:09+00:00	19.4%	32.6%	22.0%	52.7%	47.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	19.4%	42.7%	22.0%	52.7%	47.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:09+00:00	19.4%	42.7%	22.0%	52.7%	47.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	14.7%	42.7%	22.0%	52.7%	47.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	14.7%	42.7%	22.0%	52.7%	47.0%
2026-10-15T15:33:47+00:00	14.7%	39.5%	22.0%	52.7%	47.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	14.7%	39.5%	22.0%	52.7%	47.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	14.7%	39.5%	15.7%	52.7%	47.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:36+00:00	14.7%	39.5%	15.7%	52.7%	47.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00	14.7%	39.5%	15.7%	52.7%	47.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	14.7%	39.5%	15.7%	52.7%	47.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	18.7%	39.5%	15.7%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	18.7%	39.5%	15.7%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	18.7%	39.5%	15.7%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	18.7%	39.5%	15.7%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00	18.7%	39.5%	21.2%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	18.7%	39.5%	21.2%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	18.7%	39.5%	21.2%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	18.7%	39.5%	21.2%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:09+00:00	18.7%	39.5%	21.2%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	18.7%	39.5%	21.2%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	18.7%	39.5%	21.2%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:56+00:00	18.7%	39.5%	21.2%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	18.7%	39.5%	22.9%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:51+00:00	18.7%	39.5%	22.9%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	18.7%	39.5%	22.9%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	20.9%	39.5%	22.9%	50.9%	58.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	20.9%	39.5%	22.9%	50.9%	58.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	20.9%	39.5%	22.9%	50.9%	58.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	20.9%	39.5%	22.9%	50.9%	58.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	20.9%	39.5%	22.9%	50.9%	58.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:07+00:00	20.9%	39.1%	29.2%	50.9%	58.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	20.9%	39.1%	29.2%	50.9%	58.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	20.9%	39.1%	29.2%	50.9%	58.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00	17.5%	39.1%	29.2%	64.3%	58.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	17.5%	39.2%	29.2%	64.3%	58.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00	17.5%	33.0%	29.2%	64.3%	58.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	17.5%	33.0%	29.2%	64.3%	58.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	17.5%	33.0%	29.2%	64.3%	58.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	17.5%	33.0%	27.0%	64.3%	58.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	17.5%	33.0%	27.0%	64.3%	58.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	17.5%	33.0%	27.0%	64.3%	58.9%
2026-10-16T19:36:54+00:00	17.5%	33.0%	27.0%	64.3%	56.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	17.5%	33.0%	27.0%	64.3%	56.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	17.5%	33.0%	27.0%	64.3%	56.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	17.5%	33.0%	27.0%	64.3%	56.7%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	17.5%	33.0%	27.0%	48.1%	56.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:20+00:00	17.5%	33.0%	25.9%	48.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	17.5%	33.0%	25.9%	48.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	17.5%	33.0%	25.9%	48.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	16.3%	33.0%	25.9%	48.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	16.3%	33.0%	25.9%	48.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	16.3%	33.0%	25.9%	48.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	16.3%	33.0%	25.9%	48.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T04:41:10+00:00	16.3%	33.0%	25.9%	48.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	16.3%	33.0%	22.9%	48.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	16.3%	33.0%	22.9%	48.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	16.3%	33.0%	22.9%	48.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00	13.8%	33.0%	22.9%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	13.8%	33.0%	22.9%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	13.8%	33.0%	22.9%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	13.8%	33.0%	22.9%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	13.8%	33.0%	22.9%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	13.8%	12.4%	24.6%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	13.8%	12.4%	24.6%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	13.8%	12.4%	24.6%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	14.4%	12.4%	24.6%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	14.3%	12.9%	24.6%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	14.3%	10.4%	24.6%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	14.3%	10.4%	24.6%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	14.3%	10.4%	25.7%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	14.3%	10.4%	25.7%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	14.3%	10.4%	25.7%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	14.3%	10.4%	25.7%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	14.3%	10.4%	25.7%	48.9%	61.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	14.3%	10.4%	25.7%	48.9%	61.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	14.3%	10.4%	25.7%	48.9%	61.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	14.3%	10.4%	25.7%	48.9%	61.2%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	14.3%	10.4%	24.6%	48.9%	61.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	14.3%	10.5%	24.6%	48.9%	61.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	14.3%	10.5%	24.6%	48.9%	61.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	14.3%	10.5%	24.6%	48.9%	61.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	12.7%	10.5%	24.6%	48.9%	61.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	12.7%	10.5%	24.6%	48.9%	61.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	12.7%	10.5%	24.6%	48.9%	61.2%
2026-10-18T04:13:46+00:00	12.7%	10.5%	24.6%	48.9%	61.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	12.7%	10.5%	20.5%	48.9%	61.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	12.7%	10.5%	20.5%	48.9%	61.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	12.7%	10.5%	20.5%	48.9%	61.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	12.7%	10.5%	20.5%	48.9%	61.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	61%	60.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3745
National Blend	59%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3457
IFS HRES	49%	61.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2391
NWS forecast	41%	62.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
WeatherNext 2	20%	63.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0420
AIFS Single	13%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0161
IFS Ensemble	10%	65.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0110

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 61°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261018-TMAX-LE61
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 61°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗