KCLT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

94%

93%

88%

80%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 88.8¢Risks 44.38u

HRESNO 11.3¢Risks 5.63u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +5.63u · HRES −5.63u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	77.4%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	65.2%	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	6.8%	91.2%	—	—	82.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	78.2%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	73.7%	86.3%	26.3%	—	78.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	90.4%	89.0%	85.2%	—	76.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	87.5%	97.0%	80.5%	—	76.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	88.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	85.1%	95.0%	49.2%	—	57.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	69.5%	0.1%	95.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	53.3%	94.2%	25.8%	—	48.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	45.7%	94.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	77.9%	83.3%	43.9%	—	50.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	62.4%	91.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	68.6%	77.7%	51.8%	—	54.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	90.0%	82.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	62.4%	80.3%	62.4%	—	35.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	74.3%	96.2%	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	83.0%	91.4%	55.1%	—	59.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	85.6%	88.4%	85.6%	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	90.1%	88.6%	91.0%	55.5%	0.1%	65.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	92.9%	86.5%	0.0%	—	76.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	91.5%	92.0%	76.7%	66.9%	74.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	93.4%	91.8%	91.8%	69.6%	—	78.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	94.5%	93.3%	62.3%	0.0%	72.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	89.1%	91.8%	94.0%	65.1%	—	63.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	85.1%	93.0%	54.0%	55.4%	58.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	85.3%	91.3%	95.3%	52.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	86.2%	93.2%	95.3%	68.2%	74.4%	64.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	93.5%	97.3%	66.2%	—	63.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	75.0%	87.5%	97.1%	57.9%	68.3%	45.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	90.1%	92.7%	70.5%	—	64.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	71.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0005
WeatherNext 2	94%	68.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0032
IFS Ensemble	93%	67.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0055
ICON	88%	67.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0151
IFS HRES	80%	66.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0412
National Blend	68%	65.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1037
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗