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KCLT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
98%
WN2
94%
EPS
93%
ICON
88%
HRES
80%
Consensus
91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 88.8¢Risks 44.38u
VS
HRESNO 11.3¢Risks 5.63u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +5.63u · HRES −5.63u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-17T04:41:10+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00AIFS Single: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00AIFS Single: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00AIFS Single: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00AIFS Single: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00AIFS Single: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00AIFS Single: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00AIFS Single: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00AIFS Single: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00AIFS Single: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.9% · 2026-10-17T04:41:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.9% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.9% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.0% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-17T04:41:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.3% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.3% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00IFS HRES: 73.4% · 2026-10-17T04:41:10+00:00IFS HRES: 73.4% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00IFS HRES: 73.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00IFS HRES: 73.4% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00ICON: 86.6% · 2026-10-17T04:41:10+00:00ICON: 86.6% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00ICON: 86.6% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00ICON: 86.6% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00ICON: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00ICON: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00ICON: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00ICON: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00ICON: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00ICON: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00ICON: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00ICON: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00ICON: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00ICON: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:10+00:0096.2%65.9%92.3%73.4%86.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:0096.2%65.9%92.3%73.4%86.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:0096.2%65.9%92.3%73.4%86.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:0096.2%65.9%92.3%73.4%86.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:0097.8%65.9%92.3%79.7%87.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:0097.8%65.9%92.3%79.7%87.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:0097.8%65.9%92.3%79.7%87.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:0097.8%65.9%92.3%79.7%87.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:0097.8%65.9%92.3%79.7%87.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:0097.8%93.0%94.3%79.7%87.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:0097.8%93.0%94.3%79.7%87.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:0097.8%93.0%94.3%79.7%87.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:0097.8%93.0%94.3%79.7%87.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:0097.8%92.6%94.3%79.7%87.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single98%71.7°F4.1°F2026-10-17 06:000.0005
WeatherNext 294%68.4°F3.1°F2026-10-17 00:000.0032
IFS Ensemble93%67.7°F2.9°F2026-10-17 00:000.0055
ICON88%67.6°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:000.0151
IFS HRES80%66.9°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:000.0412
National Blend68%65.0°F3.2°F2026-10-17 06:000.1037
NWS forecast56%64.0°F3.4°F2026-10-17 03:000.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗