KCLT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

86%

81%

75%

63%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 78.8¢Risks 78.85u

HRESNO 21.2¢Risks 21.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +21.15u · HRES −21.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	61.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	72.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	13.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	34.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	52.6%	—	—	71.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	3.4%	84.5%	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	83.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.7%	61.1%	77.0%	16.2%	—	66.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.7%	82.5%	80.6%	75.1%	—	64.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	93.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	77.8%	93.2%	68.4%	—	62.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	73.9%	89.2%	33.7%	—	42.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	0.0%	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.1%	36.9%	87.5%	14.3%	—	32.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	29.6%	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	62.9%	70.1%	27.7%	—	33.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	44.6%	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	50.9%	61.8%	33.9%	—	36.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	79.0%	68.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	43.2%	64.3%	43.2%	—	19.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	56.0%	90.0%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	67.0%	80.3%	34.9%	—	38.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	74.7%	70.2%	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	74.5%	78.7%	34.1%	0.0%	44.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	77.7%	81.7%	70.4%	0.0%	—	56.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	74.0%	78.5%	79.3%	55.8%	44.2%	53.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	78.4%	78.4%	46.4%	—	57.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	83.4%	80.9%	37.7%	0.0%	48.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	77.2%	81.8%	39.8%	—	38.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	64.4%	79.0%	28.4%	29.5%	31.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	74.7%	83.6%	26.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	64.2%	77.8%	82.8%	40.0%	47.1%	35.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	61.9%	77.6%	88.0%	36.6%	—	33.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	45.3%	63.9%	86.6%	27.6%	37.6%	18.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	67.6%	73.3%	38.6%	—	32.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0032
WeatherNext 2	86%	68.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0185
IFS Ensemble	81%	68.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0357
ICON	75%	67.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0620
IFS HRES	63%	66.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1340
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1954
National Blend	44%	65.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.3147

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗