KCLT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

86%

81%

75%

63%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 78.8¢Risks 78.85u

HRESNO 21.2¢Risks 21.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +21.15u · HRES −21.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:47+00:00	84.7%	56.5%	86.5%	35.9%	74.5%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	84.7%	56.5%	86.5%	35.9%	74.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	84.7%	56.5%	89.2%	35.9%	74.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:36+00:00	84.7%	56.5%	89.2%	35.9%	74.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00	84.7%	56.5%	89.2%	35.9%	74.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	84.7%	56.5%	89.2%	35.9%	74.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	80.8%	56.5%	89.2%	40.5%	64.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	80.8%	56.5%	89.2%	40.5%	64.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	80.8%	56.5%	89.2%	40.5%	64.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	80.8%	56.5%	89.2%	40.5%	64.4%
2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00	80.8%	56.5%	85.3%	40.5%	64.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	80.8%	56.5%	85.3%	40.5%	64.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	80.8%	56.5%	85.3%	40.5%	64.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	76.4%	56.5%	85.3%	40.5%	64.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:09+00:00	76.4%	56.5%	85.3%	40.5%	64.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	76.4%	56.5%	85.3%	40.5%	64.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	76.4%	56.5%	85.3%	40.5%	64.4%
2026-10-16T04:23:56+00:00	76.4%	56.5%	85.3%	40.5%	64.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	76.4%	56.5%	80.5%	40.5%	64.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:51+00:00	76.4%	56.5%	80.5%	40.5%	64.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	76.4%	56.5%	80.5%	40.5%	64.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	76.6%	56.5%	80.5%	40.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	76.6%	56.5%	80.5%	40.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	76.6%	56.5%	80.5%	40.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	76.6%	56.5%	80.5%	40.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	76.6%	56.5%	80.5%	40.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:07+00:00	76.6%	42.4%	75.3%	40.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	76.6%	42.4%	75.3%	40.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	76.6%	42.4%	75.3%	40.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00	86.9%	42.4%	75.3%	33.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	86.9%	42.4%	75.3%	33.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00	86.9%	47.1%	75.3%	33.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	86.9%	47.1%	75.3%	33.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	86.9%	47.1%	75.3%	33.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	86.9%	47.1%	82.1%	33.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	86.9%	47.1%	82.1%	33.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	86.9%	47.1%	82.1%	33.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:54+00:00	87.4%	47.1%	82.1%	33.5%	72.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	87.4%	47.1%	82.1%	33.5%	72.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	87.4%	47.1%	82.1%	33.5%	72.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	87.4%	47.1%	82.1%	33.5%	72.7%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	87.4%	47.1%	82.1%	57.1%	72.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:20+00:00	87.4%	47.1%	79.7%	57.1%	72.7%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	87.4%	47.1%	79.7%	57.1%	72.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	87.4%	47.1%	79.7%	57.1%	72.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	90.5%	47.1%	79.7%	57.1%	72.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	90.5%	47.1%	79.7%	57.1%	72.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	90.5%	47.1%	79.7%	57.1%	72.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	90.5%	47.1%	79.7%	57.1%	72.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	93.7%	81.1%	82.5%	63.4%	72.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	93.7%	81.1%	82.5%	63.4%	72.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	93.7%	81.1%	86.4%	63.4%	72.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	93.7%	81.1%	86.4%	63.4%	72.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	93.7%	81.1%	86.4%	63.4%	72.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	93.7%	81.1%	86.4%	63.4%	72.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	92.0%	81.1%	86.4%	63.4%	75.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	92.0%	81.1%	86.4%	63.4%	75.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	92.0%	81.1%	86.4%	63.4%	75.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	92.0%	81.1%	86.4%	63.4%	75.1%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	92.0%	81.1%	86.4%	63.4%	75.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	92.0%	81.1%	86.4%	63.4%	75.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	92.0%	81.1%	86.4%	63.4%	75.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	92.0%	81.1%	86.4%	63.4%	75.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	94.3%	81.1%	86.4%	63.4%	75.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	94.3%	81.1%	86.4%	63.4%	75.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	94.3%	81.1%	86.4%	63.4%	75.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0032
WeatherNext 2	86%	68.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0185
IFS Ensemble	81%	68.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0357
ICON	75%	67.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0620
IFS HRES	63%	66.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1340
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1954
National Blend	44%	65.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.3147

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗