KCLT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

54%

53%

27%

26%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 49.8¢Risks 49.80u

HRESNO 50.2¢Risks 50.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +50.20u · HRES −50.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	94.9%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	—	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	39.7%	—	—	59.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	1.5%	75.1%	—	—	59.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	73.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	47.2%	65.1%	9.0%	—	52.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	71.5%	69.0%	62.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	87.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	64.9%	86.7%	53.8%	—	47.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	65.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	59.5%	80.0%	20.6%	—	27.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	0.0%	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	22.5%	76.8%	6.9%	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	16.7%	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	45.6%	53.5%	15.1%	—	19.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	27.9%	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	33.0%	43.6%	19.0%	—	20.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	63.0%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	25.5%	45.1%	25.5%	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	36.3%	78.1%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	46.9%	63.1%	18.3%	—	21.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	55.3%	50.0%	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	54.4%	59.7%	16.9%	0.0%	24.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	63.3%	48.9%	0.0%	—	34.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	58.1%	59.2%	33.1%	23.3%	31.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	61.9%	57.2%	57.2%	24.4%	—	33.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	61.1%	63.4%	59.9%	17.4%	0.0%	25.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	53.9%	60.2%	18.2%	—	17.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.1%	38.1%	55.4%	10.7%	11.3%	12.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	48.6%	61.0%	9.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.8%	51.4%	58.6%	16.3%	21.2%	13.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	50.0%	66.2%	13.6%	—	12.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	33.1%	62.4%	8.3%	13.4%	4.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	35.5%	41.8%	13.2%	—	9.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	74%	70.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0692
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	0.1901
IFS Ensemble	54%	67.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.2134
WeatherNext 2	53%	67.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.2237
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.3469
ICON	27%	65.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.5358
IFS HRES	26%	65.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.5491

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗