KCLT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

60%

46%

43%

21%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 42.8¢Risks 42.75u

EPSNO 57.2¢Risks 57.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +57.25u · EPS −57.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	30.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	37.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	22.6%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	0.4%	56.7%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	27.5%	44.4%	3.1%	—	32.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	50.7%	47.8%	40.6%	—	29.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.7%	42.4%	70.4%	31.6%	—	26.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	35.9%	59.5%	7.8%	—	11.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	0.0%	62.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	8.3%	54.2%	1.7%	—	6.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	5.4%	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	22.1%	28.4%	4.5%	—	6.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	10.3%	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	12.9%	19.6%	5.8%	—	6.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	35.2%	23.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	8.2%	19.7%	8.2%	—	1.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	13.5%	51.0%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	19.7%	33.0%	4.7%	—	5.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	25.3%	21.3%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	23.8%	28.2%	3.8%	0.0%	6.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	30.5%	19.0%	0.0%	—	10.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	25.1%	26.0%	9.4%	5.4%	8.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	23.4%	23.4%	5.5%	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	27.6%	24.6%	3.0%	0.0%	5.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	19.1%	23.8%	3.0%	—	2.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	9.5%	19.1%	1.2%	1.3%	1.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	13.9%	22.1%	0.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	14.6%	19.1%	1.9%	2.9%	1.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	12.8%	23.6%	1.3%	—	1.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	5.2%	19.2%	0.5%	1.1%	0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.3%	7.3%	0.9%	—	0.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	64%	73.1°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.4147
WeatherNext 2	60%	71.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.3540
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2852
AIFS Single	46%	70.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.2134
National Blend	46%	70.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2116
IFS HRES	43%	69.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1823
IFS Ensemble	21%	67.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0445

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗