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KCLT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≤ 61°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 16:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
9%
ICON
4%
WN2
1%
EPS
1%
AIFS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 5.0¢Risks 1.25u
VS
AIFSNO 95.0¢Risks 23.75u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.75u · AIFS −23.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 78.4% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.9% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 78.8% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 57.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.3% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 79.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.4% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.2% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.4% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 99.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 87.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 99.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 30.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 37.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 21.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 99.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 67.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.5% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.9% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 61.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 35.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 59.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 30.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 21.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 25.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 24.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 13.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 15.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 22.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 22.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 11.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 12.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 16.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 8.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 15.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 99.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 8.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 10.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.4% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.9% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.0% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.8% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.2% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.2% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.7% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 45.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.5% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0010-04 06:0010-12 00:0010-19 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:0078.4%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:0060.0%————35.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:0017.5%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:000.9%————12.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:0012.0%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0022.0%————15.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0068.9%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:0016.9%————14.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:0082.8%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0021.2%————24.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:008.5%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:002.7%————22.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:003.9%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.9%————17.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:004.2%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:002.9%————23.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:009.6%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.8%————20.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0078.8%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0057.1%————23.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0068.3%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0079.1%————12.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0041.4%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0041.8%————15.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0061.2%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0010.9%—99.5%——14.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:009.4%—67.9%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0026.4%————23.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0014.1%—40.5%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:003.9%—23.6%——11.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:006.3%—6.5%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0018.4%87.5%4.5%——10.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0013.1%—4.9%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0013.4%16.2%7.4%61.1%—13.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:005.7%—6.1%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:007.6%4.8%5.5%7.9%—13.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0011.2%—1.1%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:007.6%6.3%1.2%10.7%—13.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0016.9%—5.9%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0016.4%7.5%2.1%35.2%—27.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0017.9%99.8%1.6%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0027.9%30.8%2.3%59.1%—35.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0022.0%37.4%2.3%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0017.2%11.3%8.0%38.8%—32.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0013.0%22.2%3.2%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0015.4%17.2%11.0%30.6%—28.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0019.0%4.0%7.7%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0020.3%21.0%9.0%21.0%—45.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:009.6%12.4%1.1%——28.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:008.6%7.1%3.0%25.9%—22.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:005.5%4.2%5.5%——15.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:003.3%4.0%2.9%24.7%99.7%16.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:002.9%2.1%4.8%99.9%—9.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:003.5%2.5%2.4%9.4%15.3%10.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:001.7%2.3%2.3%13.2%—8.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:001.6%1.3%1.7%17.4%99.9%11.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:003.0%2.1%1.4%15.0%—15.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:004.3%4.3%1.6%22.0%21.0%19.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:004.0%2.0%0.9%22.1%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:003.5%1.3%0.8%11.5%8.3%13.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:003.4%1.1%0.4%12.0%—13.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:007.1%2.6%0.4%16.1%10.2%25.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0099.2%1.7%1.1%8.6%—11.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend14%65.0°F3.2°F2026-10-17 06:000.0199
NWS forecast10%66.0°F3.4°F2026-10-17 14:000.0090
IFS HRES9%66.9°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:000.0088
ICON4%67.6°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:000.0018
WeatherNext 21%68.4°F3.1°F2026-10-17 00:000.0002
IFS Ensemble1%68.0°F2.8°F2026-10-17 00:000.0001
AIFS Single<1%71.7°F4.1°F2026-10-17 06:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 61°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261019-TMAX-LE61
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 61°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗