KCLT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≤ 61°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 16:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 5.0¢Risks 1.25u

AIFSNO 95.0¢Risks 23.75u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.75u · AIFS −23.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:10+00:00	3.9%	10.6%	1.8%	33.0%	6.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	3.9%	10.6%	1.8%	33.0%	6.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	3.9%	10.6%	1.8%	33.0%	6.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:28+00:00	3.9%	10.6%	1.8%	33.0%	6.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	3.9%	10.6%	1.8%	33.0%	6.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:09+00:00	3.9%	10.6%	1.5%	33.0%	6.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	3.9%	12.2%	1.5%	33.0%	6.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:10+00:00	3.9%	12.2%	1.5%	33.0%	6.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	2.9%	12.2%	1.5%	33.0%	6.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	2.9%	12.2%	1.5%	33.0%	6.9%
2026-10-15T15:33:47+00:00	2.9%	10.4%	1.5%	33.0%	6.9%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	2.9%	10.4%	1.5%	33.0%	6.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	2.9%	10.4%	1.0%	33.0%	6.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:36+00:00	2.9%	10.4%	1.0%	33.0%	6.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00	2.9%	10.4%	1.0%	33.0%	6.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	2.9%	10.4%	1.0%	33.0%	6.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	4.1%	10.4%	1.0%	28.8%	11.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	4.1%	10.4%	1.0%	28.8%	11.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	4.1%	10.4%	1.0%	28.8%	11.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	4.1%	10.4%	1.0%	28.8%	11.6%
2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00	4.1%	10.4%	1.7%	28.8%	11.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	4.1%	10.4%	1.7%	28.8%	11.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	4.1%	10.4%	1.7%	28.8%	11.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	5.6%	10.4%	1.7%	28.8%	11.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:09+00:00	5.6%	10.4%	1.7%	28.8%	11.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	5.6%	10.4%	1.7%	28.8%	11.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	5.6%	10.4%	1.7%	28.8%	11.6%
2026-10-16T04:23:56+00:00	5.6%	10.4%	1.7%	28.8%	11.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	5.6%	10.4%	2.6%	28.8%	11.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:51+00:00	5.6%	10.4%	2.6%	28.8%	11.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	5.6%	10.4%	2.6%	28.8%	11.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	4.9%	10.4%	2.6%	28.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	4.9%	10.4%	2.6%	28.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	4.9%	10.4%	2.6%	28.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	4.9%	10.4%	2.6%	28.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	4.9%	10.4%	2.6%	28.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:07+00:00	4.9%	22.0%	3.1%	28.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	4.9%	22.0%	3.1%	28.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	4.9%	22.0%	3.1%	28.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00	2.0%	22.0%	3.1%	31.9%	15.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	2.0%	22.1%	3.1%	31.9%	15.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00	2.0%	18.7%	3.1%	31.9%	15.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	2.0%	18.7%	3.1%	31.9%	15.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	2.0%	18.7%	3.1%	31.9%	15.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	2.0%	18.7%	1.8%	31.9%	15.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	2.0%	18.7%	1.8%	31.9%	15.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	2.0%	18.7%	1.8%	31.9%	15.7%
2026-10-16T19:36:54+00:00	1.9%	18.7%	1.8%	31.9%	5.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	1.9%	18.7%	1.8%	31.9%	5.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	1.9%	18.7%	1.8%	31.9%	5.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	1.9%	18.7%	1.8%	31.9%	5.3%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	1.9%	18.7%	1.8%	14.1%	5.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:21+00:00	1.9%	18.7%	2.2%	14.1%	5.3%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	1.9%	18.7%	2.2%	14.1%	5.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	1.9%	18.7%	2.2%	14.1%	5.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	1.2%	18.7%	2.2%	14.1%	5.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	1.2%	18.7%	2.2%	14.1%	5.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	1.2%	18.7%	2.2%	14.1%	5.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	1.2%	18.7%	2.2%	14.1%	5.3%
2026-10-17T04:41:11+00:00	1.2%	18.7%	2.2%	14.1%	5.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	1.2%	18.7%	2.2%	14.1%	5.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	1.2%	18.7%	2.2%	14.1%	5.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	1.2%	18.7%	2.2%	14.1%	5.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00	0.6%	18.7%	2.2%	9.4%	4.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	0.6%	18.7%	2.2%	9.4%	4.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	0.6%	18.7%	2.2%	9.4%	4.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	0.6%	18.7%	2.2%	9.4%	4.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	0.6%	18.7%	2.2%	9.4%	4.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	0.6%	1.5%	1.3%	9.4%	4.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	0.6%	1.5%	1.3%	9.4%	4.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	0.6%	1.5%	1.3%	9.4%	4.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	0.6%	1.5%	1.3%	9.4%	4.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	0.6%	1.6%	1.3%	9.4%	4.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:29+00:00	0.6%	1.1%	1.3%	9.4%	4.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	0.6%	1.1%	1.3%	9.4%	4.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	14%	65.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0199
NWS forecast	10%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.0090
IFS HRES	9%	66.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0088
ICON	4%	67.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0018
WeatherNext 2	1%	68.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0002
IFS Ensemble	1%	68.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0001
AIFS Single	<1%	71.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 61°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261019-TMAX-LE61
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 61°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗