KCLT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

93%

82%

80%

69%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 81.3¢Risks 81.35u

HRESNO 18.7¢Risks 18.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +18.65u · HRES −18.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	70.9%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	46.8%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	2.1%	50.7%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	75.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	55.6%	3.2%	5.8%	—	45.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	43.4%	36.4%	18.4%	—	31.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	51.5%	67.7%	69.7%	—	23.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	60.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	67.0%	42.1%	54.8%	—	28.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	0.0%	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.9%	64.7%	59.9%	18.9%	—	26.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	63.4%	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	62.1%	67.8%	7.0%	—	22.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	70.6%	64.1%	64.9%	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	67.0%	69.5%	24.4%	—	43.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	80.4%	78.3%	67.4%	—	—	50.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	85.8%	74.5%	73.7%	35.7%	—	54.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	83.0%	82.3%	68.3%	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	81.7%	78.1%	74.9%	50.0%	0.0%	56.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	80.2%	81.0%	72.1%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	76.2%	71.8%	44.5%	—	51.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	84.6%	64.3%	68.5%	0.0%	—	47.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	58.1%	74.0%	37.4%	0.0%	40.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	70.7%	65.3%	32.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	78.3%	70.2%	68.0%	48.8%	37.7%	45.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	70.9%	70.9%	47.4%	—	39.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	69.3%	65.7%	69.3%	40.7%	31.9%	34.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	68.8%	70.0%	36.3%	—	36.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	72.0%	82.8%	47.1%	38.6%	45.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	87.2%	47.0%	—	36.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	79.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	77.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	82%	76.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	74.7°F	2.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	69%	74.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗