KCLT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

93%

82%

80%

69%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 81.3¢Risks 81.35u

HRESNO 18.7¢Risks 18.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +18.65u · HRES −18.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	71.5%	38.9%	85.6%	55.0%	70.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:27+00:00	71.5%	38.9%	85.6%	55.0%	70.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	71.5%	38.9%	85.6%	55.0%	70.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	71.5%	38.9%	85.6%	55.0%	70.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	71.5%	38.9%	85.6%	55.0%	70.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:11+00:00	71.5%	38.9%	85.6%	55.0%	70.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:25+00:00	72.1%	38.9%	85.6%	55.0%	64.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	72.1%	38.9%	85.6%	55.0%	64.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	72.1%	38.9%	85.6%	55.0%	64.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	72.1%	38.9%	85.6%	55.0%	64.9%
2026-10-14T10:32:21+00:00	72.1%	38.9%	85.6%	36.3%	64.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:40+00:00	72.1%	24.3%	69.9%	36.3%	64.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	72.1%	24.3%	69.9%	36.3%	64.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	72.1%	24.3%	69.9%	36.3%	64.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	54.5%	24.3%	69.9%	36.3%	64.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	55.2%	24.3%	69.7%	36.3%	64.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:06+00:00	55.2%	25.9%	69.7%	36.3%	64.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:53+00:00	55.2%	25.9%	69.7%	36.3%	64.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	55.2%	25.9%	69.7%	36.3%	64.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	55.2%	25.9%	71.2%	36.3%	64.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	55.2%	25.9%	71.2%	36.3%	64.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	55.2%	25.9%	71.2%	36.3%	64.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	71.1%	25.9%	71.2%	61.4%	70.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	71.1%	25.9%	71.2%	61.4%	70.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	71.1%	25.9%	71.2%	61.4%	70.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	71.1%	25.9%	71.2%	61.4%	70.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	71.1%	25.9%	71.2%	61.4%	70.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	71.1%	25.9%	79.8%	61.4%	70.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	71.1%	25.9%	79.8%	61.4%	70.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:09+00:00	71.1%	25.9%	79.8%	61.4%	70.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	60.2%	25.9%	79.8%	61.4%	70.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	60.2%	25.9%	79.8%	61.4%	70.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	60.2%	25.9%	79.8%	61.4%	70.5%
2026-10-15T04:01:53+00:00	60.2%	25.9%	79.8%	61.4%	70.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:51+00:00	60.2%	25.9%	79.8%	61.4%	70.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	60.2%	25.9%	76.7%	61.4%	70.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	60.2%	25.9%	76.7%	61.4%	70.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	60.2%	25.9%	76.7%	61.4%	70.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:12+00:00	53.2%	25.9%	76.7%	61.6%	79.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	53.2%	25.9%	76.7%	61.6%	79.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	53.2%	25.9%	76.7%	61.6%	79.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:28+00:00	53.2%	25.9%	76.7%	61.6%	79.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	53.2%	25.9%	76.7%	61.6%	79.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:09+00:00	53.2%	25.9%	78.9%	61.6%	79.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	53.2%	30.9%	78.9%	61.6%	79.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:10+00:00	53.2%	30.9%	78.9%	61.6%	79.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	52.4%	30.9%	78.9%	61.6%	79.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	52.4%	30.9%	78.9%	61.6%	79.3%
2026-10-16T04:23:56+00:00	85.3%	34.2%	72.8%	61.6%	77.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	85.3%	34.2%	81.6%	61.6%	77.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:51+00:00	85.3%	34.2%	81.6%	61.6%	77.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	85.3%	34.2%	81.6%	61.6%	77.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	82.0%	34.2%	81.6%	61.6%	73.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	82.0%	34.2%	81.6%	61.6%	73.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	82.0%	34.2%	81.6%	61.6%	73.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	82.0%	34.2%	81.6%	61.6%	73.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	82.0%	34.2%	81.6%	61.6%	73.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:07+00:00	82.0%	36.8%	66.6%	61.6%	73.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	82.0%	36.8%	66.6%	61.6%	73.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	82.0%	36.8%	66.6%	61.6%	73.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00	89.7%	36.8%	66.6%	52.4%	73.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	89.7%	36.8%	66.6%	52.4%	73.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00	89.7%	39.7%	66.6%	52.4%	73.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	89.7%	39.7%	66.6%	52.4%	73.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	89.7%	39.7%	66.6%	52.4%	73.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	89.7%	39.7%	78.2%	52.4%	73.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	89.7%	39.7%	78.2%	52.4%	73.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	89.7%	39.7%	78.2%	52.4%	73.8%
2026-10-16T19:36:54+00:00	91.2%	39.7%	78.2%	52.4%	77.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	91.2%	39.7%	78.2%	52.4%	77.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	91.2%	39.7%	78.2%	52.4%	77.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	91.2%	39.7%	78.2%	52.4%	77.1%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	91.2%	39.7%	78.2%	61.0%	77.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:21+00:00	91.2%	39.7%	78.2%	61.0%	77.1%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	91.2%	39.7%	78.2%	61.0%	77.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	91.2%	39.7%	78.2%	61.0%	77.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	93.7%	39.7%	78.2%	61.0%	77.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	93.7%	39.7%	78.2%	61.0%	77.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	93.7%	39.7%	78.2%	61.0%	77.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	93.7%	39.7%	78.2%	61.0%	77.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:29+00:00	95.4%	80.0%	91.4%	72.0%	80.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	95.4%	80.0%	91.4%	72.0%	80.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	95.4%	80.0%	92.7%	72.0%	80.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	95.4%	80.0%	92.7%	72.0%	80.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	95.4%	80.0%	92.7%	72.0%	80.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	95.4%	80.0%	92.7%	72.0%	80.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	94.7%	80.0%	92.7%	68.9%	82.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	94.7%	80.0%	92.7%	68.9%	82.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	94.7%	80.0%	92.7%	68.9%	82.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	94.7%	80.0%	92.7%	68.9%	82.4%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	94.7%	80.0%	93.1%	68.9%	82.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	94.7%	80.0%	93.1%	68.9%	82.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	94.7%	80.0%	93.1%	68.9%	82.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	94.7%	80.0%	93.1%	68.9%	82.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	93.8%	80.0%	93.1%	68.9%	82.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	93.8%	80.0%	93.1%	68.9%	82.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	93.8%	80.0%	93.1%	68.9%	82.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	79.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	77.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	82%	76.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	74.7°F	2.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	69%	74.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗