KCLT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

38%

16%

14%

10%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 37.4¢Risks 37.35u

ICONNO 62.7¢Risks 62.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +62.65u · ICON −62.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	46.9%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	61.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	23.1%	—	—	18.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	0.3%	25.4%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	28.6%	0.5%	1.1%	—	20.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	18.4%	14.0%	5.1%	—	10.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	23.4%	38.0%	40.2%	—	6.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	35.9%	15.9%	24.8%	—	8.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	0.0%	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	32.2%	27.9%	4.3%	—	7.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	30.3%	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	28.4%	33.8%	0.9%	—	5.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	29.4%	30.2%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	31.4%	33.9%	5.3%	—	13.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	43.4%	30.9%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.9%	37.6%	36.6%	9.0%	—	19.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.0%	47.0%	29.9%	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	39.8%	35.9%	15.1%	0.0%	19.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	42.6%	31.6%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	35.1%	30.1%	10.9%	—	14.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	22.3%	25.8%	0.0%	—	11.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	16.8%	30.0%	6.8%	0.0%	8.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	25.3%	20.8%	4.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	23.6%	21.7%	10.0%	5.9%	8.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	22.8%	22.8%	8.7%	—	6.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	17.3%	20.0%	5.7%	3.5%	4.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	18.2%	19.1%	4.0%	—	4.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	19.1%	30.5%	6.3%	4.0%	5.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	35.2%	5.6%	—	3.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	65%	77.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	38%	75.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	76.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	73.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	72.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	10%	71.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗