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KCLT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
65%
WN2
38%
EPS
16%
HRES
14%
ICON
10%
Consensus
31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 37.4¢Risks 37.35u
VS
ICONNO 62.7¢Risks 62.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +62.65u · ICON −62.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-20T04:04:08+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00AIFS Single: 65.2% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00AIFS Single: 65.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00AIFS Single: 65.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00AIFS Single: 65.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T04:04:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-20T04:04:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T04:04:08+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T04:04:08+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00ICON: 9.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00ICON: 9.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00ICON: 9.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00ICON: 9.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 07:0610-20 10:07
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:08+00:0061.0%16.3%34.0%13.5%12.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:0061.0%16.3%34.0%13.5%12.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:0061.0%16.3%37.9%13.5%12.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:0061.0%16.3%37.9%13.5%12.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:0061.0%16.3%37.9%13.5%12.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:0065.2%16.3%37.9%13.5%9.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:0065.2%16.3%37.9%13.5%9.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:0065.2%16.3%37.9%13.5%9.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:0065.2%16.3%37.9%13.5%9.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single65%77.7°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast59%77.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 238%75.6°F2.9°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
National Blend33%76.0°F1.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble16%73.4°F3.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES14%72.4°F3.7°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
ICON10%71.9°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗