KCLT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

88%

72%

55%

45%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 67.8¢Risks 67.80u

HRESNO 32.2¢Risks 32.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +32.20u · HRES −32.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	—	—	—	71.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	59.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	—	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	24.0%	—	—	62.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	89.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	—	—	—	53.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	23.0%	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	73.8%	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	86.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.8%	1.8%	82.9%	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	83.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	65.7%	77.0%	73.1%	38.9%	—	40.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	73.4%	60.8%	45.6%	—	54.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	78.4%	62.7%	40.2%	—	51.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	92.2%	70.5%	32.3%	—	26.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	0.4%	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	84.3%	85.7%	54.2%	52.5%	—	53.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	62.6%	59.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	86.4%	86.9%	60.4%	38.8%	—	50.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	77.8%	81.6%	62.4%	—	—	46.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	80.4%	84.0%	63.6%	36.4%	—	39.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	80.4%	68.2%	59.4%	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	73.7%	67.8%	35.7%	—	32.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	78.9%	66.5%	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	66.0%	65.1%	22.7%	—	30.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	66.5%	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	67.9%	72.7%	67.9%	34.1%	—	35.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	66.4%	66.4%	63.3%	0.0%	—	28.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	65.9%	58.1%	66.9%	28.0%	0.0%	27.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	61.9%	67.5%	24.4%	—	33.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	73.4%	66.9%	79.2%	28.7%	32.0%	40.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	80.0%	33.7%	—	33.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	75.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	74.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	72.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	55%	70.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	70.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗