KCLT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

88%

72%

55%

45%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 67.8¢Risks 67.80u

HRESNO 32.2¢Risks 32.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +32.20u · HRES −32.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:11+00:00	95.9%	60.3%	94.3%	61.6%	90.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	95.9%	60.3%	94.3%	61.6%	90.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	95.9%	60.3%	94.3%	61.6%	90.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	95.9%	60.3%	94.3%	61.6%	90.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00	97.0%	60.3%	94.3%	58.7%	91.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	97.0%	60.3%	94.3%	58.7%	91.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	97.0%	60.3%	94.3%	58.7%	91.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	97.0%	60.3%	94.3%	58.7%	91.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	97.0%	60.3%	94.3%	58.7%	91.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	97.0%	91.5%	96.2%	58.7%	91.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	97.0%	91.5%	96.2%	58.7%	91.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	97.0%	91.5%	96.2%	58.7%	91.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	93.7%	91.5%	96.2%	58.7%	91.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	93.6%	91.5%	96.2%	58.7%	91.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:20+00:00	88.7%	71.5%	91.7%	53.9%	70.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	88.7%	71.5%	91.7%	53.9%	70.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	88.7%	71.5%	91.7%	53.9%	70.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	88.7%	71.5%	89.0%	53.9%	70.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	88.7%	71.5%	89.0%	53.9%	70.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:50+00:00	88.7%	71.5%	89.0%	53.9%	70.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	88.3%	71.5%	89.0%	45.1%	54.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	88.3%	71.5%	89.0%	45.1%	54.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	88.3%	71.5%	89.0%	45.1%	54.5%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	88.3%	71.5%	89.0%	45.1%	54.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	88.3%	71.5%	89.0%	45.1%	54.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	88.3%	71.5%	88.4%	45.1%	54.5%
2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00	88.3%	71.5%	88.4%	45.1%	54.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	88.3%	71.5%	88.4%	45.1%	54.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	90.5%	71.5%	88.4%	45.1%	54.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	90.5%	71.5%	88.4%	45.1%	54.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	90.5%	71.5%	88.4%	45.1%	54.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	75.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	74.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	72.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	55%	70.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	70.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗