KCLT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

83%

59%

21%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.4¢Risks 46.45u

HRESNO 53.6¢Risks 53.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.55u · HRES −53.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	—	—	—	38.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	9.8%	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	74.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	8.5%	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	49.4%	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	0.3%	60.7%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	51.4%	46.5%	16.2%	—	17.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	45.6%	32.3%	19.9%	—	26.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	50.8%	33.0%	15.5%	—	23.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	28.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	73.2%	39.7%	10.4%	—	7.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	0.0%	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	59.1%	23.2%	21.9%	—	22.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	29.6%	26.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	59.6%	26.9%	12.2%	—	19.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	50.0%	27.9%	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	52.8%	28.2%	10.2%	—	11.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	31.8%	23.8%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	36.6%	30.4%	9.0%	—	7.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	42.0%	28.2%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	26.8%	25.9%	3.8%	—	6.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	26.2%	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	31.1%	26.4%	6.6%	—	7.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	24.0%	21.4%	0.0%	—	4.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	16.8%	23.3%	4.0%	0.0%	3.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	18.3%	22.5%	2.9%	—	5.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	20.8%	33.1%	3.5%	4.3%	6.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	32.5%	4.3%	—	4.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	79.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	83%	80.3°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	75.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	71.1°F	4.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	66.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗