KCLT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

83%

59%

21%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.4¢Risks 46.45u

HRESNO 53.6¢Risks 53.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.55u · HRES −53.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:01:53+00:00	63.9%	22.2%	72.5%	19.7%	68.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:51+00:00	63.9%	22.2%	72.5%	19.7%	68.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	63.9%	22.2%	67.7%	19.7%	68.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	63.9%	22.2%	67.7%	19.7%	68.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	63.9%	22.2%	67.7%	19.7%	68.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:12+00:00	28.9%	22.2%	67.7%	39.2%	66.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	28.9%	22.2%	67.7%	39.2%	66.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	28.9%	22.2%	67.7%	39.2%	66.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:28+00:00	28.9%	22.2%	67.7%	39.2%	66.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	28.9%	22.2%	67.7%	39.2%	66.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:09+00:00	28.9%	22.2%	65.8%	39.2%	66.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	28.9%	20.7%	65.8%	39.2%	66.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:10+00:00	28.9%	20.7%	65.8%	39.2%	66.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	68.5%	20.7%	65.8%	39.3%	66.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	68.5%	20.7%	65.8%	39.3%	66.4%
2026-10-16T04:23:56+00:00	86.3%	22.7%	67.4%	51.8%	69.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	86.3%	22.7%	74.7%	51.8%	69.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:51+00:00	86.3%	22.7%	74.7%	51.8%	69.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	86.3%	22.7%	74.7%	51.8%	69.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	50.0%	22.7%	74.7%	51.8%	83.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	50.0%	22.7%	74.7%	51.8%	83.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	50.0%	22.7%	74.7%	51.8%	83.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	50.0%	22.7%	74.7%	51.8%	83.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	50.0%	22.7%	74.7%	51.8%	83.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:07+00:00	50.0%	20.9%	58.7%	51.8%	83.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	50.0%	20.9%	58.7%	51.8%	83.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	50.0%	20.9%	58.7%	51.8%	83.4%
2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00	83.8%	20.9%	58.7%	9.1%	83.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	83.8%	20.9%	58.7%	9.1%	83.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	79.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	83%	80.3°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	75.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	71.1°F	4.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	66.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗