KCLT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

21%

20%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 13.4¢Risks 13.35u

EPSNO 86.7¢Risks 86.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +86.65u · EPS −86.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	12.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	1.5%	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	1.0%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	16.0%	—	—	10.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	0.0%	22.8%	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	15.3%	12.6%	2.1%	—	2.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	11.3%	5.9%	2.6%	—	4.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	12.9%	5.6%	1.5%	—	3.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	28.1%	7.2%	0.7%	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	0.0%	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	15.2%	2.3%	2.1%	—	2.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	3.4%	2.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	14.1%	2.7%	0.7%	—	1.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	8.8%	2.6%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	9.4%	2.5%	0.4%	—	0.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	2.9%	1.6%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	3.5%	2.4%	0.2%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	4.4%	1.9%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	1.5%	1.4%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	1.3%	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.6%	1.1%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.8%	0.6%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.3%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.3%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.4%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.8%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	0.6%	—	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	26%	77.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	21%	76.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	77.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	70.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	74.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261021-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗