KCLT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

81%

54%

46%

43%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 62.6¢Risks 62.60u

EPSNO 37.4¢Risks 37.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.40u · EPS −37.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	—	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	76.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	77.5%	—	—	44.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	53.9%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	2.6%	25.4%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	61.8%	28.1%	5.6%	—	34.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	76.3%	27.9%	17.5%	—	17.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	15.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	75.5%	14.6%	44.7%	—	33.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	69.8%	53.2%	27.4%	—	39.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	61.3%	0.5%	50.8%	—	—	31.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	55.0%	63.9%	27.9%	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	44.9%	45.7%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	67.8%	62.9%	24.8%	—	29.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	64.1%	63.2%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	51.8%	67.0%	17.2%	—	27.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	54.7%	62.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	58.7%	64.3%	26.3%	—	30.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	58.9%	66.5%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	49.0%	46.9%	65.1%	25.1%	—	32.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	48.9%	67.4%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	53.3%	69.9%	23.8%	23.8%	33.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	70.4%	0.0%	—	25.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	82%	76.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	75.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	54%	72.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	72.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 73°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗