KCLT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

81%

54%

46%

43%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 62.6¢Risks 62.60u

EPSNO 37.4¢Risks 37.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.40u · EPS −37.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00	91.7%	26.7%	77.3%	28.2%	85.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	91.7%	26.6%	77.3%	28.2%	85.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	91.7%	26.6%	77.3%	28.2%	85.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	91.7%	26.6%	78.0%	28.2%	85.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	91.7%	26.6%	78.0%	28.2%	85.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	91.7%	26.6%	78.0%	28.2%	85.7%
2026-10-16T19:36:54+00:00	88.5%	26.6%	78.0%	28.2%	84.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	88.5%	26.6%	78.0%	28.2%	84.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	88.5%	26.6%	78.0%	28.2%	84.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	88.5%	26.6%	78.0%	28.2%	84.7%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	88.5%	26.6%	78.0%	48.2%	84.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:21+00:00	88.5%	26.6%	87.6%	48.2%	84.7%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	88.5%	26.6%	87.6%	48.2%	84.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	88.5%	26.6%	87.6%	48.2%	84.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	90.5%	26.6%	87.6%	48.2%	84.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	90.5%	26.6%	87.6%	48.2%	84.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	90.5%	26.6%	87.6%	48.2%	84.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	90.5%	26.6%	87.6%	48.2%	84.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:29+00:00	83.4%	62.2%	93.7%	46.6%	80.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	83.4%	62.2%	93.7%	46.6%	80.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	83.4%	62.2%	92.4%	46.6%	80.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	83.4%	62.2%	92.4%	46.6%	80.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	83.4%	62.2%	92.4%	46.6%	80.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	83.4%	62.2%	92.4%	46.6%	80.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	83.9%	62.2%	92.4%	40.4%	70.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	83.9%	62.2%	92.4%	40.4%	70.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	83.9%	62.2%	92.4%	40.4%	70.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	83.9%	62.2%	92.4%	40.4%	70.5%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	83.9%	62.2%	90.6%	40.4%	70.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	83.9%	62.2%	90.6%	40.4%	70.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	83.9%	62.2%	90.6%	40.4%	70.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	83.9%	62.2%	90.6%	40.4%	70.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	82.9%	62.2%	90.6%	40.4%	70.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	82.9%	62.2%	90.6%	40.4%	70.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	82.9%	62.2%	90.6%	40.4%	70.5%
2026-10-19T04:30:29+00:00	78.4%	39.5%	88.1%	34.5%	65.1%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	78.4%	39.5%	84.6%	34.5%	65.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	78.4%	39.5%	84.6%	34.5%	65.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	78.4%	39.5%	84.6%	34.5%	65.1%
2026-10-19T07:32:46+00:00	75.9%	39.5%	84.6%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	75.9%	39.5%	84.6%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	75.9%	39.5%	84.6%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	75.9%	39.5%	84.6%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:00+00:00	75.9%	39.5%	84.6%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00	75.9%	44.6%	77.1%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00	75.9%	44.6%	77.1%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	75.9%	44.6%	77.1%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	77.3%	44.6%	77.1%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	77.4%	44.6%	77.2%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:20+00:00	77.4%	43.2%	77.2%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	77.4%	43.2%	77.2%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	77.4%	43.2%	77.2%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	77.4%	43.2%	77.2%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	77.4%	43.2%	77.2%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-19T18:59:50+00:00	77.4%	43.2%	77.2%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00	78.1%	43.2%	77.2%	45.5%	54.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	78.1%	43.2%	77.2%	45.5%	54.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	78.1%	43.2%	77.2%	45.5%	54.0%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	78.1%	43.2%	77.2%	45.5%	54.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	78.1%	43.2%	77.2%	45.5%	54.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	78.1%	43.2%	81.4%	45.5%	54.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00	78.1%	43.2%	81.4%	45.5%	54.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	78.1%	43.2%	81.4%	45.5%	54.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	82.0%	43.2%	81.4%	45.5%	54.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	82.0%	43.2%	81.4%	45.5%	54.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	82.0%	43.2%	81.4%	45.5%	54.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	82%	76.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	75.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	54%	72.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	72.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 73°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗