KCLT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

15%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 10.6¢Risks 10.60u

EPSNO 89.4¢Risks 89.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +89.40u · EPS −89.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	36.4%	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	14.8%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.1%	3.2%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	17.5%	3.5%	0.2%	—	5.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	28.5%	3.1%	1.3%	—	1.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	25.8%	0.8%	7.0%	—	3.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	18.9%	9.3%	2.3%	—	4.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	0.0%	7.9%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	9.0%	13.4%	2.0%	—	2.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	5.1%	5.4%	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	14.1%	11.3%	1.3%	—	1.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	11.2%	10.8%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	5.8%	11.9%	0.5%	—	1.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	6.1%	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	6.8%	9.0%	1.0%	—	1.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	6.3%	9.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	3.0%	7.8%	0.7%	—	1.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	3.0%	8.0%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	3.3%	8.1%	0.4%	0.4%	0.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	7.5%	0.0%	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	21%	76.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	76.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	2%	72.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	72.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗