KCLT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

15%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 10.6¢Risks 10.60u

EPSNO 89.4¢Risks 89.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +89.40u · EPS −89.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:12+00:00	9.1%	2.0%	18.2%	10.4%	8.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	9.1%	2.0%	18.2%	10.4%	8.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	9.1%	2.0%	18.2%	10.4%	8.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:28+00:00	9.1%	2.0%	18.2%	10.4%	8.1%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	9.1%	2.0%	18.2%	10.4%	8.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:00	9.1%	2.0%	21.8%	10.4%	8.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	9.1%	2.6%	21.8%	10.4%	8.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:10+00:00	9.1%	2.6%	21.8%	10.4%	8.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	29.3%	2.6%	22.1%	10.6%	8.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	29.3%	2.6%	22.1%	10.6%	8.1%
2026-10-15T15:33:49+00:00	29.3%	3.0%	22.1%	10.6%	8.1%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	29.3%	3.0%	22.1%	10.6%	8.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	29.3%	3.0%	21.6%	10.6%	8.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:36+00:00	29.3%	3.0%	21.6%	10.6%	8.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	29.3%	3.0%	21.6%	10.6%	8.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	29.3%	3.0%	21.6%	10.6%	8.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	31.2%	3.0%	21.6%	17.1%	47.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	31.2%	3.0%	21.6%	17.1%	47.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	31.2%	3.0%	21.6%	17.1%	47.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	31.2%	3.0%	21.6%	17.1%	47.2%
2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00	31.2%	3.0%	20.4%	17.1%	47.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	31.2%	3.0%	20.4%	17.1%	47.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	31.2%	3.0%	20.4%	17.1%	47.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	58.3%	3.0%	20.4%	17.1%	47.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:09+00:00	58.3%	3.0%	20.4%	17.1%	47.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	58.3%	3.0%	20.4%	17.1%	47.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	58.3%	3.0%	20.4%	17.1%	47.2%
2026-10-16T04:23:57+00:00	58.3%	3.0%	20.4%	17.1%	47.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	58.3%	3.0%	25.8%	17.1%	47.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:51+00:00	58.3%	3.0%	25.8%	17.1%	47.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	58.3%	3.0%	25.8%	17.1%	47.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	2.3%	3.0%	25.8%	17.1%	52.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	2.3%	3.0%	25.8%	17.1%	52.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	2.3%	3.0%	25.8%	17.1%	52.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	2.3%	3.0%	25.8%	17.1%	52.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	2.3%	3.0%	25.8%	17.1%	52.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:07+00:00	2.3%	0.7%	22.7%	17.1%	52.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	2.3%	0.7%	22.7%	17.1%	52.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	2.3%	0.7%	22.7%	17.1%	52.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00	53.7%	0.7%	22.7%	5.1%	52.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	53.7%	0.7%	22.7%	5.1%	53.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:14+00:00	53.7%	0.9%	22.7%	5.1%	53.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	53.7%	0.9%	22.7%	5.1%	53.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	53.7%	0.9%	22.7%	5.1%	53.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	53.7%	0.9%	23.3%	5.1%	53.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	53.7%	0.9%	23.3%	5.1%	53.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	53.7%	0.9%	23.3%	5.1%	53.4%
2026-10-16T19:36:54+00:00	46.3%	0.9%	23.3%	5.1%	51.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	46.3%	0.9%	23.3%	5.1%	51.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	46.3%	0.9%	23.3%	5.1%	51.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	46.3%	0.9%	23.3%	5.1%	51.7%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	46.3%	0.9%	23.3%	13.4%	51.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:21+00:00	46.3%	0.9%	36.6%	13.4%	51.7%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	46.3%	0.9%	36.6%	13.4%	51.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	46.3%	0.9%	36.6%	13.4%	51.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	50.7%	0.9%	36.6%	13.4%	51.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	50.7%	0.9%	36.6%	13.4%	51.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	50.7%	0.9%	36.6%	13.4%	51.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	50.7%	0.9%	36.6%	13.4%	51.7%
2026-10-17T04:41:13+00:00	50.7%	0.9%	36.6%	13.4%	51.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	50.7%	0.9%	37.4%	13.4%	51.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	50.7%	0.9%	37.4%	13.4%	51.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	50.7%	0.9%	37.4%	13.4%	51.7%
2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00	47.6%	0.9%	37.4%	9.7%	38.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	47.6%	0.9%	37.4%	9.7%	38.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	47.6%	0.9%	37.4%	9.7%	38.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	47.6%	0.9%	37.4%	9.7%	38.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	47.6%	0.9%	37.4%	9.7%	38.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	47.6%	1.5%	43.2%	9.7%	38.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	47.6%	1.5%	43.2%	9.7%	38.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	47.6%	1.5%	43.2%	9.7%	38.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	32.9%	1.5%	43.2%	9.7%	38.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	32.8%	1.5%	43.2%	9.8%	39.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:29+00:00	32.8%	1.8%	43.2%	9.8%	39.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	32.8%	1.8%	43.2%	9.8%	39.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	32.8%	1.8%	39.4%	9.8%	39.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	32.8%	1.8%	39.4%	9.8%	39.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	32.8%	1.8%	39.4%	9.8%	39.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	32.8%	1.8%	39.4%	9.8%	39.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	33.6%	1.8%	39.4%	7.3%	27.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	33.6%	1.8%	39.4%	7.3%	27.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	33.6%	1.8%	39.4%	7.3%	27.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	33.6%	1.8%	39.4%	7.3%	27.3%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	33.6%	1.8%	34.9%	7.3%	27.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	33.6%	1.8%	34.9%	7.3%	27.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	33.6%	1.8%	34.9%	7.3%	27.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	33.6%	1.8%	34.9%	7.3%	27.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	32.1%	1.8%	34.9%	7.3%	27.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	32.1%	1.8%	34.9%	7.3%	27.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	32.1%	1.8%	34.9%	7.3%	27.3%
2026-10-18T04:13:46+00:00	32.1%	1.8%	34.9%	7.3%	27.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	32.1%	1.8%	35.8%	7.3%	27.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	32.1%	1.8%	35.8%	7.3%	27.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	32.1%	1.8%	35.8%	7.3%	27.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	32.1%	1.8%	35.8%	7.3%	27.3%
2026-10-18T08:00:56+00:00	31.6%	1.8%	35.8%	5.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	31.6%	1.8%	35.8%	5.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	31.6%	1.8%	35.8%	5.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	31.6%	1.8%	35.8%	5.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	31.6%	0.5%	30.5%	5.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	31.6%	0.5%	30.5%	5.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	31.6%	0.5%	30.5%	5.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	31.6%	0.5%	30.5%	5.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	27.8%	0.5%	30.5%	5.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	27.8%	0.5%	30.5%	5.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:26+00:00	27.8%	0.5%	30.5%	5.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:49+00:00	27.8%	0.5%	30.5%	5.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	27.8%	0.5%	29.6%	5.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:18+00:00	27.8%	0.5%	29.6%	5.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	27.8%	0.5%	29.6%	5.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:54+00:00	27.8%	0.5%	29.6%	3.6%	14.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	27.8%	0.5%	29.6%	3.6%	14.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	27.8%	0.5%	29.6%	3.6%	14.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	27.8%	0.5%	29.6%	3.6%	14.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	27.8%	0.5%	29.6%	3.6%	14.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	27.8%	0.5%	24.3%	3.6%	14.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	27.8%	0.5%	24.3%	3.6%	14.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	27.8%	0.5%	24.3%	3.6%	14.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:00	22.9%	0.5%	24.3%	3.6%	14.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	22.9%	0.5%	24.3%	3.6%	14.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	22.9%	0.5%	24.3%	3.6%	14.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	22.9%	0.5%	24.3%	3.6%	14.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:29+00:00	22.9%	0.5%	24.3%	3.6%	14.8%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	22.9%	0.5%	19.5%	3.6%	14.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	22.9%	0.5%	19.5%	3.6%	14.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	22.9%	0.5%	19.5%	3.6%	14.8%
2026-10-19T07:32:46+00:00	17.4%	0.5%	19.5%	4.2%	8.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	17.4%	0.5%	19.5%	4.2%	8.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	17.4%	0.5%	19.5%	4.2%	8.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	17.4%	0.5%	19.5%	4.2%	8.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:00+00:00	17.4%	0.5%	19.5%	4.2%	8.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	23.3%	0.5%	14.9%	4.6%	4.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	23.3%	0.5%	14.9%	4.6%	4.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	23.3%	0.5%	14.9%	4.6%	4.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	20.7%	0.5%	14.9%	4.6%	2.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	20.7%	0.5%	14.9%	4.6%	2.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00	20.7%	0.5%	14.9%	4.6%	2.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	20.7%	0.5%	14.9%	4.6%	2.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	21%	76.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	76.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	2%	72.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	72.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗