KCLT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

78%

62%

34%

23%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.7¢Risks 52.70u

ICONNO 47.3¢Risks 47.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.30u · ICON −47.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	—	—	—	66.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	27.3%	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	96.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	1.9%	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	70.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	1.6%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	3.0%	52.7%	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	69.5%	66.4%	73.1%	18.0%	—	55.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	59.4%	67.0%	42.7%	—	46.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	30.3%	65.6%	25.1%	—	36.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	54.7%	—	—	26.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	49.2%	38.2%	54.8%	25.5%	—	32.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	5.1%	56.5%	—	—	26.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	24.5%	56.6%	18.4%	—	25.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	20.1%	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	24.8%	52.6%	16.1%	—	26.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	18.4%	52.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	13.9%	54.6%	10.6%	—	15.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	22.4%	55.7%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	53.9%	19.0%	52.9%	18.3%	29.6%	19.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	49.0%	—	55.0%	—	—	13.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	82%	74.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	73.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	71.4°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	68.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	67.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗